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As some may have seen, a trio of late GOP-leaning pollsters found Jones tied or with a slight lead, after media polls with a big Democratic bias uniformly showed a major lead for the GOP candidate. Does this change my mind? Nope. Here's why below.
First, all three pollsters are really just average -- Trafalgar, Insider Advantage, and Quantus -- while the 4th, Emerson, has had a slight Democratic lean. I trust none of them in the way I trust Baris.
Second, a sneak peak within their numbers shows the Jones surge is entirely assuming low propensity Democrats -- minority voters & very young voters -- will flood the polls. I see no evidence of that in the early voting data and remain suspect of it. Even these polls showing a close race for AG have a massive GOP lead for AG amongst the high propensity voter groups.
Third, even these polls show the Democratic AG with a very low approval rating, and a very high risk voters just leave that part of the ballot blank, as long time Virginia ...
Theory question:
I think the election coverage will be focused on pushing a democratic edge. Let's say we think candidate A will win by 6 points. They will be pushing it as a 10-point lead. If we buy the 10-point lead and plan on selling it on the night of the election, does it really matter if we get it right?