Miracle Man Dan's Kentucky Derby 2025

“Differences of opinion is what makes horse racing and missionaries." - Will Rogers

Last year we made a nice score by counterfeiting the favorite and getting Mystic Dan up for the win at 18-1. We had our reasons, notably that Fierceness  Beyers were suspect. Let’s see if we can counterfeit the favorite Journalism (PP 8) this year.

It’s looking like the track is coming up sloppy, or muddy at best. Here’s where breeding still counts. Well, Journalism’s got Curlin, a two-time Horse of the Year who sires sloppy track specialists.  I hate to say it, but this horse is legit.  He’s got it all - form, Byers, savvy connections, Rispoli up, and bred for the slop. The only knock is that he’s been running in short fields. Ok, maybe his Beyers could be a bit suspect, but the reality is he’s the one to beat.

The hype horse is Billy Mott’s Sovereignty, with Junior Alvarado getting the ride. I heard this first from Krackonberger, and even our distinguished host got the word on him. I get it. Strong form and maybe the strongest closer in the field out of Tapit. Tapit's a strong sire, but his progeny do less well in the mud. I can’t get him over Journalism.

My long shot this year is Burnham Square (PP 15), the other hard closer that won the Blue Grass. Love the local connections, with “my boy” Brian Hernandez Jr., trying for back-to-back wreaths of Roses. Blue Grass was slow. Faster pace here suits this gelding, and Sovereignty too. It would not be a shock to see these two coming from the clouds down the stretch with Journalism hanging on to find the wire.

The other horse we have to use is our old buddy D. Wayne’s American Promise (PP 5). Out of Justify,  he gets promoted to Use from Long Shot in the slop. A couple bucks to win wouldn’t be the worst play if there are rivers running down the back stretch.

My fill-in long shots are Final Gambit (PP 3, Brad Cox and saving ground), Luxor Cafe (PP 7, Japanese star with some mud in him), Tiztastic (PP 14, La. Derby winner), Render Judgement (PP 15, Toby Keith what the hell you never know), Chunk of Gold (PP 19, another Lucas horse with Brian Hernandez up, 2nd in La. Derby), and from the way out wide Baeza (PP 21), half brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage, 2nd to Journalism in the Santa Anita, with Flavian Pratt getting the ride.

Summary:

Keys: 8,9 (Journalism, Burnham Square)

Use: 5,18 (American Promise, Sovereignty)

LS: 3,14,15,19,21

Win Bets: 8 (heavy) , 5 (light)

Exotics to come, if interested check back in around 4ish.

Best of luck from this old-time handicapper who just likes to have some fun with the Triple Crown these days.