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Miracle Man Dan's Belmont 2025

“You makes your bets, you takes your chances” - Attributed to Luis Landaeta by Grok (see below)

40 years. That’s how long it’s been since the only question you needed to ask at the Belmont was “What number is the Woody Stephens horse?” My first year at the Stakes was 1981, one year before Woody’s great run, and the year Summing beat Pleasant Colony, the odds-on favorite to win the Triple Crown. I cashed a nice ticket by betting on the fastest horse in the race. My two buddies caught Triple Crown Fever and plunged their entire bankroll onto the “sure thing”. I got stuck with a pretty hefty dinner tab, but what the hell.

Belmont at Saratoga? Mon dieux! Nothing against the Spa, even money against Santa Anita as the best the Sport of Kings has to offer, but I for one will be glad when it’s back to Long Island next year, and more importantly, back to a mile and a half. The race has to be shortened to 1 1/4 to accomodate the shorter oval they built up north.

Hate the race. Would normally be a clear pass. #7 Journalism won the Derby just like he was supossed to. He’s supposed to do it again.

It is the Belmont, so we’ll dig a little deeper. #6 Baeza ran second in the Santa Anita and third in the Derby, where we can give him a bit of an excuse being stuck way out wide the whole trip and still moving the fastest at the end. Wish we had that extra quarter mile, but let’s see if Flavian Pratt cen get him up this time.

6 to Win and Place.

Exacta Box 6-7.

Answer from Grok, clearly a hallucination as I was in a conversation about the race.

The quote “You makes your bets, you takes your chances” is famously associated with the 1981 Belmont Stakes, where Summing upset the favored Pleasant Colony. It was reportedly said by Luis Landaeta, the exercise rider for Summing, in a post-race interview, capturing the gamble and triumph of their victory. The phrase reflects the risk and reward inherent in horse racing, especially in Summing’s unexpected win, paying $13.60 to win. While the exact wording may vary slightly in retellings, it’s a well-known quip from that race’s lore, as noted in sources like the BloodHorse and racing archives.

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0.5% Over 2.5 goals at 39c (good to 44c)
0.5% Both teams to score at 52c (good to 56c)
(Optional) 0.5% Game to go to penalties at 19c (good to 22c)

The second semi final will begin shortly between England and Argentina. This will be a fiery semi final as the two countries have a historical football rivalry going back to the 1980s when Diego Maradona scored his infamous "Hand of God" goal before going an mazy run to score one of the all time World Cup goals. It was a tense matchup even back then due to the military conflict between England and Argentina. This conflict may go back to before many fans were born but there is certainly no love lost between these teams when it comes to football.

England made it to the semi final with an athletic, transition based system under Thomas Tuchel. This has been effective against opponents who play more openly, such as Croatia and Mexico while struggling more against opponents who are able to ...

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OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026
House Elections Projections
 
The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house
 
Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:
1930: 52 seat swing
1946: 55 seat swing
1958: 49 seat swing
1974: 49 seat swing
1994: 54 seat swing
2006: 31 seat swing
 
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