Update on the Irish Presidential Election

Today we had the major unexpected news that the frontrunner for November's Irish presidential election, Mairéad McGuinness, has pulled out of the race due to health reasons. This came as a shock, since she had to go through Fine Gael's nomination process to be their candidate, so it is difficult to imagine that there were any real doubts over her ability to sustain a full campaign after her nomination was confirmed. Nonetheless, her campaign was nonexistent and I wondered if she was going to in effect campaign from Brussels but it makes much more sense if she wasn't truly in a position to launch her campaign.

That leaves independent candidate Catherine Connolly as the only formally declared candidate with enough nominations to run. She is now the clear favourite to win. McGuinness dropping out now opens up room for a new candidate for Fine Gael. Several who have ruled themselves out may be tempted to step in. These would include Seán Kelly, ex president of the Gaelic Athletic Association and current Member of European Parliament as well as Heather Humphreys, ex deputy leader of Fine Gael who is currently taking a break from politics. Fianna Fáil, who have been reluctant to nominate a candidate, may sense an opening. Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin may be tempted to take her chances against Connolly but it would be a bad look for a party leader to do so when she has not achieved her objectives as party leader.

A number of wild cards lurk in the background, such as ex UFC fighter Conor McGregor and businessman Peter Casey but both of their campaigns are dead on arrival since they don't have the requisite support to get on the ballot. Both of their stock has rapidly dwindled in Ireland. Two thirty five year olds, the youngest age you can be to run for the office of Uachtarán na hÉireann have also declared their intent to run: Nick Delehanty, an active populist on Irish social media, and Gareth Sheridan, a US based businessman seeking nominations through the county council route. Delehanty would do well but would have a low ceiling, at least for now. Sheridan on the other hand is attracting disdain from both the left and the right in Ireland at the moment. Neither appears to have the support necessary to run.

From this point onwards, any candidate who declares themselves will be playing catchup as Connolly has been canvassing for the best part of a month now and they would need to go through the nomination process before they could seriously begin campaigning. If Connolly manages to keep her cool for the rest of the election cycle and is prepared for the inevitable curveballs on her visiting Syria during the civil war and her opposition to Western involvement in Ukraine then her prospects on election day will look very, very good indeed.

If you took the yes on Catherine Connolly or no on Mairéad McGuinness picks from my last update then you are a decent amount on your original stake. If you bought no on Mairéad McGuinness I would recommend that you convert that position to yes on Catherine Connolly. If you already had yes on Catherine Connolly, then it is good to hold. Right now I would estimate that she has at least a 66% chance of winning in November and I would be content to buy if you haven't already all the way up to at least 50c (this is a somewhat conservative estimate but do with it what you will).