A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!

March Madness final four recap and Championship preview...

How'd we feel about a +12% day?

Expected Value and Statistical Averages

If you took the official picks yesterday you had a very good day indeed. All five cashed comfortably. If you did any form of parlay involving them, you're up even more. We're up 15-30% of bankroll in one night, time to celebrate, right?

Not so fast.

Betting is not like a regular salaried job. You don't get guaranteed income in exchange for your time and energy. Instead you get the opportunity to make money at the risk of your bankroll. Your balance may go up as well as down. You can get lucky one day and unlucky the next (and it would far from being a once off). In order to truly put your bankroll into perspective, you need to be thinking about things in terms of probabilities and use it in combination with odds taken to form a statistical average of what your return would be over the probabilistic space of all outcomes. This is the foundational premise of any statistical edge as you must be able to say with an overwhelming degree of confidence ...