Irish Presidential Update - Close of Nominations

Well, things have really heated up since my last update. And now they're cooling down again. Sorry for the anti-climax. Fair warning, this post will go on for a while, so if you want to get to the betting stuff, skip to the end. Since we last left off, we now have three confirmed candidates

-Catherine Connolly, the independent socialist candidate from Galway launched her campaign in July with the backing of all the main left wing Irish political parties. Her nomination was initially supported by the Social Democrats, People Before Profit-Solidarity and the Labour Party but over time, she gained the support of the Green Party, Right to Change, Workers and Unemployed (!) Party, Independents 4 Change, 100% Redress (a single issue party in Donegal) and crucially, Sinn Féin, the biggest left wing party in Ireland and who have also never been in government.

-After Mairéad McGuinness of Fine Gael withdrew on health ground, Fine Gael fast tracked their nominations process to a degree almost reminiscent of Kamala Harris's nomination after Joe Biden dropped out. She was challenged by Seán Kelly MEP, former president of the Gaelic Athletic Association who announced his run on national radio only to find out that the bulk of the party had already secretly agreed to support Heather Humphreys. Kelly outwardly took it well but the manner in which he was left high and dry bordered on the farcical but was swiftly forgotten by the rest of the party, at least publicly.

-For a long time, it seemed Fianna Fáil would not run a candidate until out of the blue, ex-military, ex-manager of Dublin Gaelic Football and winner of five All Irelands in a row Jim Gavin declared for Fianna Fáil. This was another fast tracked nomination process, this time at the expense of Billy Kelleher MEP, who managed to keep the split of internal votes closer as there was more consternation within Fianna Fáil at the swift manner in which the party was corralled into supporting a candidate who to all intents and purposes had no real political background prior to declaring.

Attempts were made by several other candidates to get on the ballot by securing either 20 nominations from members of Oireachtas na hÉireann (comprised of Dáil Éireann, the lower house, and Seanad Éireann, the upper house) or the support of four county councils. The main candidates who tried and failed this route were:

-Conor McGregor, ex-MMA, known as Notorious, decided to dabble with a run for Uachtarán na hÉireann. Although there was speculation in the early days that he might gain the support of some independents and rogue Fianna Fáilers, this never materialised and he withdrew from presidential nominations process, citing the limitations of the Irish presidential nomination system to get on the ballot. Despite the positive attention his bid for Áras got abroad, he was always a very divisive figure in Ireland and had managed to alienate even many of those who agreed with him politically. Thus ended McGregor's campaign

-Nick Delehanty, a young upstart who made a name for himself as an independent candidate with the delightfully trollish poster slogan "Make Crime Illegal". Needless to say, the troglodytes of Reddit couldn't stand him but he quickly became very popular on social media with his political anaylses that showed he understood the intricacies of the role better than he initially let on. His initial career path was in law but he quit to set up a daycare business for dogs so his trajectory conformed to anything but expectations. Nonetheless, he failed to secure the support necessary to get on the ballot but this is not the last time he will be heard from.

-Next we have Gareth Sheridan, a Dubliner in his mid 30s who made a small fortune in America with a medical wearables company that successfully secured a lot of direct investment. His return to Ireland to launch his campaign causes quite a stir and raised many eyebrows as to all intents and purposes he had moved his life over to America and had never attempted a serious political venture in Ireland. His campaign quickly rubbed people on both sides of the political spectrum up the wrong way as more and more questions were raised over his business's past and profitability as well as the sincerity of his run for Áras. In spite of that, he still managed to get the backing of two county councils, but he was still two short of what was needed to get on the ballot.

-Lastly, and by far the most significantly, was Maria Steen, a conservative campaigner for the Iona Institute who had fought against the referenda to legalise gay marriage and repeal the constitutional ban on abortion. Both of these efforts were ultimately unsuccessful on her part but she played a crucial role in defeating the referenda on the role of families and women in the home in the Irish constitution last year. These latter two were championed by both government and opposition and were both defeated comprehensively in what was a very embarrassing debacle for the government. She launched her campaign late and managed to get the support of 18 members of Oireachtas na hÉireann but she failed to get over the line in time, much to the relief of the government parties, who would not have been looking forward to going head to head against her again.

Steen's campaign, though short lived, is a very important point on the current state of play. A very large minority of the Irish electorate feels like they are politically represented by nobody in this election. What's more, the nominations process for Uachtarán na hÉireann, which normally acted as a safeguard against spurious nominations, had previously been an effective check and balance as long as the two main parties alternated between government and opposition. Now that the two main parties are in government together, they used their presence on county councils to block nominations of any independent candidates (beyond Connolly, who already had the support of leftist Oireachtas members). An awful lot of people are very angry about this right now and there is much talk on social media of spoiling their ballots. I'm expecting an unprecedently low turnout, save maybe for years where an incumbent was running.

There is a very real chance that this election will become a referendum on the government parties and if the mood around the government now translates into the voting day, then the independent socialist Catherine Connolly may well carry the day. She has the support of every notable left wing party in the country (albeit with some dissent from its members) and despite being quoted as having made some controversial statements, most of the ammunition against her has already been expended. Meanwhile, Jim Gavin is still a big unknown politically and there continue to be very salacious rumours spread about his personal life (rumours which if true would torpedo his campaign). Heather Humphreys has consolidated support as the system candidate, but there are still a lot of question marks about her ministerial record which haven't truly been dealt with publicly yet.

Currently on Polymarket, Humphreys is the favourite at about 40% with Gavin second at 33% with Connolly in third at roughly 26%. Out of these, I believe that Gavin is overvalued and Connolly is undervalued. There will be numerous presidential debates over the next month and at these I expect the odds to shift considerably. The Irish electorate makes up its mind very late on these things and I would classify Connolly as a live underdog who has a real chance of picking up disgruntled voters who would have voted for Steen but may hold their nose and vote for the pro neutrality candidate. In Irish politics there is considerably more crossover between left and right than there is in other countries. The political party Aontú for example is a right wing party but was founded by socially conservative ex-Sinn Féin, which is traditionally a left wing party. Since Aontú spearheaded Steen's nomination, I can't imagine their voters will be keen to vote for the parties that blocked their candidate's run at the ballot.

My current positions:

-Catherine Connolly Yes 26% (OK to buy to 33%)
-Jim Gavin No 67% (OK to buy to 75%)

1% on Connolly and 2% against Gavin would suffice if you wanted to dabble in this market (I have more on but I will be live trading the debates). I'll have final picks about a week before election day.