2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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SportsPicks@SportsPicks
October 06, 2025
OFFICIAL PICKS: Elections & Politics, Monday, October 6, 2025
Sneak peek at the picks will be discussing w/ Baris on What Are The Odds:
1% Shutdown Last More Than 20 Days YES 50% (ok to buy up to 60%)
1% Clean CR YES 26%(ok to buy up to 40%)
2% Netherlands Election PVV YES 72% (ok to buy up to 90%)
2% Irish Presidential Election Connolly YES 73% (ok to buy up to 90%)
2% Mamdani 50%+ NO 40% (ok to buy up to 60%)
2% Mamdani Margin 24%+ NO 65%(ok to buy up to 80%)
Mamdani Boroughs
1% Bronx NO 26% (ok to buy up to 33%)
5% Staten Island NO 90% (ok to buy up to 95%)
New Jersey Governor Sherill Margin
1% Loses YES 22% (ok to buy up to 35%)
1% 0-1.99% YES 12% (ok to buy up to 20%)
1% % 2-3.99% YES 14% (ok to buy up to 20%)
Virginia Governor Spanberger Margin
0.5% 14 or above NO 70% (ok to buy up to 90%)
0.5% 0-1.99% YES 5% (ok to buy up to 10%)
0.5% 2 to 3.99 YES 6% (ok to buy up to 10%)
0.5% 4 to 5.99 YES 9% (ok to buy up to 20%)
0.5% 6 to 7.99 YES 12% (ok to buy up to 20%)
0.5% 8-9.99 YES 17% (ok to buy up to 20%)
1% Virginia AG Democratic Party YES 57% (ok to buy up to 75%)
5% Global right sweep YES 42% (ok to buy up to 60%)
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OFFICIAL PICKS: Dutch Election
Exit polls show it very, very close. They tend to be more accurate in the Netherlands. Hence, recommendation is to SELL both PVV & Global Right Sweep positions at current rates, which is around 40%; ok to sell to 15%. Wouldn't sell below that b/c close enough for a longshot.
Mathematical Considerations For Optimising Association Football Entries
In this post I would like to lay out some mathematical foundations for finding the best value on ternary moneyline events, notably association football, which has win lose and draw outcomes. Unlike American sports, where the rare occasion a draw happens it can be absorbed into the +0.5 and -0.5 spreads in assessing your options, the draw has a very significant probability of happening in football to the extent it opens up double chance and draw no bet markets (in which the draw can be significant enough to render both pick'ems unprofitable at the same time, a phenomenon not observed in American sports). This leads directly on to part of the challenge in football betting: the draw can nuke evenly poised spreads since spreads require an edge on one team over the other, so moneylines have to considered to get a full picture of potential value.
Whereas finding an edge on American sports primarily lies in identifying a ...
