Steelers vs Browns - a Couple of Potential Picks

Alright, quick Thursday night post for you all: I've decided to stick my neck out a bit on a couple of potential NFL plays on the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns. My reasoning here is very simple and I am trying to test out my understanding as I learn about the game so as always counterpoints are welcome.

I am looking at the Browns to cover a spread of 5.5 against the Steelers. The main contest I am looking at here is between Aaron Rodgers and the Cleveland pass defence. Rodgers has always had a strong edge in passing due to his quick reading of the game but with older age and injury recovery, he is not quite as agile as he used to be. When he is given time on the ball, he can pick out a lightning pass. If he can face the pass rush he doesn't have quite the same ability to resist it as he would five years ago, for example.

He is playing against the Browns, who have a very strong pass rush, the best in the league, you could say. They demonstrated this strong pass rush against the Packers, where they got sack after sack and even ground the game out to a win. If there were defence that could really give Aaron Rodgers trouble via the pass rush, it would be Cleveland's. We also saw that Cleveland managed to keep things close against the Vikings in London despite having travelled across the Atlantic ocean to face a team that had already been in Dublin the weekend before and so was fully set up before the Browns even got off the plane. This same Vikings team were second best for much of the match against the Steelers and yet still managed to finish within touching distance.

I wouldn't be surprised for this match to play out somewhat similarly to Browns vs Packers where the Browns may not seize a decisive initiative but are able to negate the Steelers' offence enough to negate their drives and keep themselves within touching distance for most of the game. +5.5 strikes me as being a bit generous, maybe I'd set the line at 3.5 to 4.5. The over is set at 38 and this might be priced just about right, but when you see the over that low, my inclination is that it's more likely to go under than over, so I'd maybe set it at 36.

So yeah, my lean is Browns to cover a spread of +5.5 and a slight inclination towards game total under 38. Let me know what you think!