Hi All - Looking for holes in the below thesis...criticism / cynicism welcome too :)

My thoughts on tonight's Jake Paul v Anthony Joshua fight: I get it, it's on Netflix, it's hokey, he's an ex-Disney star, it's a circus, it's rigged, the Mike Tyson fight was a joke, his whole career is a marketing ploy, etc. etc. That was my default take at first glance. HOWEVER, this time it's a sanctioned boxing match. As in the Florida Athletic Commission has somehow sanctioned this fight. Therefore, any match fixing is illegal and you go to jail. And if shenanigans do happen it will be pretty obvious to everyone watching.

The difference in class between these two guys is insane. It would be akin to like a D3 varsity tennis player playing against Novak Djokovic. They're not even in the same league. Joshua is an Olympic gold medalist and 2x unified heavyweight champion who has been a top fighter in his weight class for a decade. Jake Paul (200 lbs) was training to fight a 135 pound guy who has now been replaced by a 6 foot 6 , 245lb athletic monster. Jake Paul hasn't been able to knock out a stable of old washed MMA fighters, the notion that he has remotely any chance against Joshua is insane. The old adage is "a puncher's chance", and while that is literally true, unless Joshua slips or something and gets caught I just don't see world where he's able to knock out Joshua and if he can't do that then there is no shot he wins via outboxing him and winning on points.

Now, Joshua hasn't fought in a year, and was coming off an injury, so there's that, but he sure looks healthy now. He was looking for an 8 round tune up fight anyway in preparation for hopefully a 2026 bout with Tyson Fury. He now gets that tune up fight plus $100M. And if he wants Saudi money for a real fight next year, allowing Paul to hang around for more than a round or two will make him a laughing stock.

The way I see it, if he really wanted to, Joshua could come out aggressively and probably end the fight in a minute. Maybe he sits back a little bit though at first, gets his ring legs, sizes up Paul, spots his weakness and then just waits for the moment to knock him out. MAYBE Paul is able to dink and dodge for a round or two and survive, but this is NOT going the distance. Unless it's rigged, which as stated earlier is illegal. I would be shocked if this thing goes more than 3-4 rounds.

Now to betting. The above is supposedly priced in with Joshua at -1400 and Paul +700. To me though it should be like 100 to 1. You can pare it down to -450 by betting KO/TKO/DQ. As I've already said multiple times, this thing going the distance is a professional and PR disaster for Joshua and it would be an embarrassment to the sport of boxing to be honest. I obviously think Joshua knocks him into next week but if starts pummeling him or Paul gets knocked down once I could see the ref and especially Paul's corner be super trigger happy on the towel through to protect him. It is extremely dangerous in my opinion so if he looks wobbly in any way I think the fight gets stopped early to save him from a bigger knockout.

To get some better odds I think Joshua in rounds 1-4 at -175 is solid. You could go a bit more aggressive with under 2.5 (+110), under 3.5 (-150) and/or some sprinkles on round 1 (+375), round 2 (+400), round 3 (+500).

Anyway, those are my thoughts. Curious if anyone else has thoughts or intentions to bet this fight. Happy to have holes poked in the above analysis too if I've missed something.

Thanks!