Betting Nomenclature

There has been confusion lately in interpreting the official picks. I'd like to post this as a brief primer that can be referred back to in order to answer questions about the picks and what they mean. In what follows I will be using common betting terminology. If you haven't encountered one of these terms, I have a brief glossary at the bottom of this post.

The general format of pick is a specified maximum proportion of bankroll on a particular outcome at a guide market price with a limit that estimates what the fair value of that bet should be at the time. Let's look at an example pick from Major League Baseball.

2% STL 41% Mets (ok at any point 50% or less, or +100 or higher)

2% denotes the maximum proportion of your bankroll to assign to this bet. Note that Barnes' bankroll sizing is rather aggressive and can eat into your bankroll during cold streaks (which inevitably happens with high volume betting). If you are new to betting, have a lower risk appetite or otherwise are not acquainted with the markets you're betting on, I would strongly recommend scaling down the size of your bet by at least half (in this case, you would only put 1% on the example bet above). If you are happy to risk 2%, go ahead and place 2% or you can even place more than 2%, but this is not recommended and is sheerly at your own discretion.

Since this is an MLB bet, there are two teams listed corresponding to the particular fixture. In the above example, STL is shorthand for St Louis' Cardinals and Mets is the New York Mets. The team that you are recommended to back is always listed first and in capital letters. The team you are betting against will be in standard case and listed second. In the above case, you are betting on the Cardinals against the Mets.

The number between the teams is the market price at the time of the pick. Note the odds format. In this case, it is 41%, which means if you opened up Kalshi at the time of the pick, you would see the market for Cardinals to win would have shares available at market at 41c each. It is up to you whether you enter at market and buy at 41c or set a limit order at a lower price and hope to get filled. Note that you should factor into account fees before you place your order. Kalshi will show what your fees will be on the order tab. Note also that Kalshi offers yes and no on both teams individually. That is to say, buying shares of yes on the Cardinals to win is the same as buying shares of no on the Mets to win. Sometimes these are not priced the same and the orderbooks might be thinner on one of these options, giving you an opportunity to get a more favourable entry price. If you do not have Kalshi, you can take this bet at a sportsbook but note that the odds will be different, generally less favourable that what you would get on prediction markets. If the Cardinals are trading at 41c, you would generally see them listed around +130 to +135 on a sportsbook.

The good to line is listed at 50% for prediction markets or +100 on sportsbooks. This is a important number to pay attention to because there are no certainties in betting, only probabilities. Therefore, you are not looking for bets that are a "sure thing", you're looking at bets that are underpriced compared to what they should be. If the price is more generous than the good to limit, the pick is good to take. If not, you can still take the pick but it is no longer recommended and is hence at your discretion. In this case, if the price of the Cardinals to win goes above 50c on Kalshi or if their odds reduce below +100 (going into -100 and below), the original edge in the pick is no longer clearly identifiable. Note that this does not necessarily mean the bet is no longer good; the line may have moved due to a completely different factor than the bet's edge (for example an injury) but on the other hand the market might have caught up to the edge. This also doesn't mean to sell the bet if it goes beyond that point (though you can if you believe the prices has overcompensated the other way). Once again, use your discretion. If you get a good entry the bet is generally good to hold.

No we'll go through a few formats of bet. The example above is a moneyline bet. When you see odds posted between two teams, that's moneyline.

Let's now look at a spread bet.

2% CLE +1.5 48% Dodgers (ok at any point 55% or less, or -125 or lower)

This pick means that you are backing the Cleveland Indians (currently known as the Guardians, Barnes sometimes calls them the fake Indians) against the spread. This means when you add 1.5 to Cleveland's final score, the bet will be a success if Cleveland's total exceeds that of the Dodgers. So if Cleveland loses by one run or wins outright, the bet will be successful. If Clevaland loses by two or more runs, the bet is unsuccessful. Correspondingly, the other side is Dodgers -1.5 which means the bet is successful if the Dodgers win by two or more runs but fails if they win by one or lose outright.

How do we differentiate between spread and moneyline bets? American moneyline notation always has at least three digits as it's expressed as a ratio between stake and winning multiplied by one hundred. Plus money is when profit is bigger than stake, so profit divided by stake multiplied by one hundred is guaranteed to be at least +100. Minus money is when stake is bigger than profit, so stake divided by profit ensures odds approach -100 (but never reach -100 as then it becomes +100). So when you see three digits or more, that's always moneyline. You're not going to see teams with a spread of a hundred points. So when you see a one or two digit number (pre decimal place), that's a spread bet.

On sportsbooks the spread options are one of the main ones listed at the top of the game page so they're pretty easy to find. The main spread offered is the median spread, where each side is priced as close to the other as possible. Sportsbooks generally offer alternative spread lines too but be careful with those, there's higher edge if you know what you're doing but the overround tends to be higher so they can potentially end up ripping you off more than the corresponding median line. On Polymarket the spreads are pretty straightforward too as you can buy Cleveland +1.5 and your counterparty will have Dodgers -1.5. On Kalshi, the principle is the same but the wording is different. Kalshi doesn't phrase it as buying Cleveland +1.5, it phrases it as will the Dodgers win by over 1.5 runs? Kalshi's convention is to assign yes to the favourite covering the spread, so no corresponds to the underdog covering the spread. If you are on the Dodgers, you buy yes on that market. If you're on Cleveland, you buy no on this market, as no on Dodgers -1.5 is equivalent to yes on Cleveland +1.5.

Next let's consider a total.

2% MICHIGAN-ARIZONA UNDER 157.5 51% (ok to 55% or -125)

This bet is for the total number of points scored between both Michigan and Arizona in the March Madness Final Four matchup not to be 158 or more. On Sportsbooks, this is one again pretty straightforward, totals are listed with standard game line. On Polymarket, you have a standard market for over 157.5 or under 157.5. On Kalshi, the market would be will there be more than 157.5 points scored between Michigan and Arizona? Kalshi's convention is for the yes to correspond to the over and the no to correspond to the under.

Now let's look at a parlay.

2% PARLAY MICHIGAN +4.5 & Illinois +3.5 +115 (ok to +100)

This is a bet for Michigan to cover a spread of +4.5 and Illinois to cover a spread of +3.5. Both teams must fulfil this condition for the bet to cash. Sportsbooks offer parlays but make sure to check the odds to make sure they're not shaving off extra value. You can do this by converting the separate odds to implied probabilities, multiplying them and converting back to standard odds. Generally for more or less independent events the quoted odds will be the same as the implied odds, especially with reputable bookmakers, but once again due your own due diligence. The bet above looks like a teaser, which is an adjusted parlay where spread lines are adjusted to make the bet closer in odds to a standard bet. For independent events, a parlay is equivalent to betting on the first leg and then rolling over the winnings to the second bet. Therefore, betting them separately as straights is another valid option and with prediction markets, this will generally get you a better edge. Kalsi offers its own version of a parlay called the Kalshi combo, but as far as I'm aware it's only available on the mobile app and as far as I can tell the app is only available in the US. I'm sure there are workarounds for that but I haven't tested it as I prefer straights from a theoretical point of view anyway.

Let's look at a player prop now.

1% WALKER Receiving Yards 20+ YES 55% (ok at any point up to 65%)

This is a pick from the Super Bowl as it is for Kenneth Walker III of the Seattle Seahawks to have at least 20 receiving yards. This pick is pretty straightforward, so there's no need to elaborate, only to say that if you are looking on prediction markets you will have to scroll down the page and find the player props dropdown on Kalshi, whereas on Polymarket, there are separate tabs for player props.

Next we have a futures pick.

1% DUKE 23% (ok at any point 30% or below)

This is for Duke to win March Madness. You can find this under the futures section on Polymarket or Kalshi. If you take this on a sportsbook you may not be able to cash out or if you can it may be at unfavourable odds. On prediction markets you can cash out at fair prices based on who is willing to match your order.

Finally, we'll look at a politics pick.

2% Fed Maintains Rate in March NO

This pick is for the Federal Reserve to decide from their March meeting to change interest rates. We do this indirectly by taking the market for them to leave rates unchanged and buying no on it. This means that if they raise or lower rates at all in March, the bet is successful. If not, the bet is unsuccessful.

I hope this will help to clarify Barnes' betting conventions. Remember, double and triple check your bets before you place them and if you're not sure, stay away. Consistent profits come from discipline, attention to detail and smart line shopping. Good luck and good gambling!

Glossary - see below for terms used above

Bankroll - the amount of money you've set aside for betting. In Barnes' words, it should be a sum of money that you could lose and not blink twice. This is not necessarily your entire betting capital, it is simply a sum of money allocated to a particular sector of betting. It is recommended that you maintain separate bankrolls for sports betting and political betting. You can replenish bankrolls if you want, important thing is that if you have an edge, you are able to remain solvent.

Sportsbook - a traditional bookmaker that offers a specific set of betting markets at odds posted by them. They have limits on how much you can bet and some will even ban you if you win too much (English bookmakers are notorious for this, Irish bookmakers less so and American bookmakers tend to limit your parlays).

Prediction Market - a betting exchange where instead of betting against the bookmaker at the bookmaker's odds, you bet peer to peer against another site user. You can take any position you want at any price you want so long as you can find someone who is willing to take the other side of the order. That is to say, if you want to bet yes on an outcome, you need someone who is willing to bet no at an equivalent price because the money you put up is collateral for your counterparty. You can enter at market and fill someone else's existing order but you will generally pay fees on this. You can also enter a limit order to enter at a price you like but there's no guarantee someone else will fill your order. You may still pay a small fee on certain markets on Kalshi or you may even be given a rebate as on certain markets on Polymarket.

Orders - an instruction to the bookmaker or prediction market to enter a position if one is available. When you decide to enter a position now, you submit a market order and it will execute at the lowest price available. At a sportsbook, this will be the price listed by the bookmaker. On a prediction market, this will be the lowest ask on the order book. A limit order allows you to specify the maximum price you would like to enter a position at. If an order matches yours, you enter at your desired price. Market orders will ensure you get in if there are any orders available on the other side but you will pay a premium for the convenience. Limit orders give you a better price if you are patient but you are not guaranteed to get filled at all. Bookmakers don't offer limit orders, so you will have to go to prediction markets or betting exchanges to avail of them. Limit orders are one of the primary edges you can avail of on prediction markets.

Odds - odds can take a number of different formats, including American (plus or minus before odds number), fractional (used by Irish, British and Australian bookmakers), decimal (international bookmakers such as Pinnacle) and percentage (used by prediction markets to price shares in an event outcome). Bookmakers and prediction markets often have a setting to display odds in the desired format.

Resolution Criteria - the conditions that must be met for a bet to be successful. For most markets these will be straightforward, but it is your responsibility to make sure you know the terms and conditions of the bet before you take it. Do not assume that the resolution criteria will be reasonable. On sportsbooks you may have to dig a bit for resolution criteria. On prediction markets it will be listen on the market page. Resolution criteria may be different for similar markets on different platforms.