Champions League Final - My Picks

1% PSG to win the Champions League at 55c (good to 60c)
0.5% PSG and Arsenal to draw at 29c (good to 32c)

I discussed my angles for the final yesterday with Crickett on Crick's Corner so this will summarise my reasoning. Today's Champions League final is a clash of two very different footballing ideologies. One is a more traditional form of elite team in the form of PSG with world class talent all over the pitch and divergent attacking talent - that is to say, an offence that is able to score goals in ways that very few offences are able to manage. The other team is based on full integration of big data analytics in the form of Arsenal, whose approach is based on territorial control, minimisation of expected goals conceded and manipulation of set pieces. There have been many clubs that have gone in heavy on data analytics but until now, no elite level club has fully embraced big data into every aspect of its approach. Champions League winners have consistently had some form of divergent talent so Arsenal would be looking to upset a long standing trend.

I see value in PSG because despite a weak start to the season (heavily influenced by them playing every game possible last season including the Club World Cup) they have gone up several gears in the Champions League knockout stages. Luis Enrique has also rotated extensively over the course of the season to the extent that PSG's starters have played considerably less football than Arsenal's starters. This means they haven't been quite so consistent in Ligue 1 but they have performed very strong in the Champions League. Enrique is not unique in that regard, Sir Alex Ferguson and Carlo Ancelotti traditionally sacrificed some degree of league form to maximise their chances of winning top honours.

The Champions League Final is not a typical game. The dynamics of it are very different to a regular game as the season is over after it. This means that there are big psychological pressures that affect how the teams play the game. Who scores the first goal will have a large effect on how the game plays out. If Arsenal score first, I would expect them to play more conservatively as they look to consolidate their advantage. PSG with their enormous attacking talent will have their chances to score; in the last month and a half Arsenal have won most of their games but with the exception of a virus ridden Fulham, they were mainly narrow wins where the other team had chances to score but didn't take them. If PSG score first, that's where things can become very uncomfortable for Arsenal as they would have to chase the game, something they haven't had to do often this season. They would have to take risks and against a team with PSG's attacking talent and especially on the break, this would expose them to conceding again. I see this as a risk asymmetry, which is part of why I see the game as being in PSG's favour on net.

When it comes to how these teams play, Arsenal are a very physical team that look to dominate in midfield and gain an edge on set pieces. Set pieces are a vulnerability for PSG and I do see set pieces as being Arsenal's best chances for scoring; I would not however look at one team being strong on set pieces while the other isn't and conclude that one team will maximally exploit that weakness. These two teams played in last year's semi final and the set piece game was not something that was unknown to both teams. PSG's approach was to play a territorial counter battle with Arsenal whereby they were willing to tactically foul in midfield to deprive Arsenal of a chance to win set pieces in more dangerous territory close to PSG's box. This was successful, and PSG managed to keep the game from being played on Arsenal's terms. Luis Enrique has incorporated territorial management into his strategy, and this was visible during the semi final against Bayern Munich, in which at certain times when PSG won a free kick in their own half, instead of retaining possession and playing out through the back, they instead chose to kick the ball out for a throw in close to Bayern Munich's corners. This had the effect of depriving Bayern Munich's front line the chance of winning the ball high up the field and creating a chance from it. So I would expect territorial management to be a large part of Enrique's strategy to shield PSG from Arsenal's set piece threat.

As to the draw, I do see it as being slightly undervalued given the plausible evolution of game states. If the scores are level going into the last half hour, I would expect Mikel Arteta's game management to become more conservative so as not to give up a goal that would potentially end the game. Arteta's entire philosophy is about minimising expected goals risk given up while maximising Arsenal's expected goals created. In such a crucial game with Arsenal never having won a Champions League, the only way I see him taking larger risks is if Arsenal are chasing the game. If they are behind and manage to equalise, I consider it very likely that he would dial the risks down and try to win the game through Arsenal's more methodical strategies.

I would also say that Arsenal this season have struggled against teams where they don't have an outright talent edge. In all their Champions League knockout games they have been favoured and that's where Arsenal's big data driven methods have the most edge, incrementally eking out edge bit by bit. Manchester City is the only team in the Premier League against whom Arsenal haven't been favoured in this season, Arsenal have lost twice to them and drawn once. Both Manchester City and PSG have the talent to stretch the game in possession and play it on terms that Arsenal are uncomfortable with, especially because PSG are elite at baiting and evading the press. If this were a normal Champions League group stage game, I would see the case for Arsenal. In a Champions League final, that's where the margins become much finer and generally the team that is more comfortable with managing chaos tends to come out on top. Arteta's ideology is to minimise in game chaos so his underlying probabilistic edge can compound. PSG are very comfortable with dialling up and managing the chaos in a game. If PSG are able to do this, I would see it as being a very asymmetric edge in their favour.

Finally, there is a trend with Champions League winners where they tend to be in the time cycle of the team. They tend to be made up of players that have played together for years and have a high degree of role clarity. Both teams fulfil this condition but PSG have crucially been performing at the highest level for longer. Champions League winners did struggle to retain their title historically, but that trend was broken by Zinedine Zidane's Real Madrid, who won the title three years in a row. I don't see any signs of structural issues with PSG, they have a very stable tactical identity and a young core of the team as well as being much calmer under pressure than they were under previous management. Teams that challenged in the Champions League using a new system aren't necessarily successful on a first pass. We saw this with Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool when they lost 3-1 to Real Madrid in the 2018 final. They won it a year later while Real Madrid went out at the quarter finals. This isn't necessarily to say something similar will happen this time around, but sometimes the balance of power depends on timing and experience. Right now this is new territory for this Arsenal squad for whom their recent Premier League title was their first major trophy in over two decades. PSG on the other hand have been there and done that, they know what subtle game management shifts you need to see a game out. Arsenal aren't necessarily at that stage just yet, especially when Arteta's style of management is based on chaos minimisation. So I will be on PSG tonight and we shall see how it goes.