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DannyWalter@MiracleManDan

5 hours ago

MiracleManDan's AI World Cup
This is purely experimental. Posting for posterity, let's see if the model comes anywhere close to predictive.

1. Group Winner Value (p_group_win vs odds)

+EV bets (model p_group_win > implied from the odds):

• Turkey (D) @ +175 → +13.4% edge (model 49.8%)

• Ecuador (E) @ +390 → +13.2% edge (model 33.6%)

• Iran (G) @ +650 → +9.2% edge (model 22.5%)

• South Korea (A) @ +333 → +7.1% edge (model 30.2%)

• Switzerland (B) @ -125 → +6.0% edge (model 61.6%)

• Czech Republic (A) @ +400 → +4.9% edge (model 24.9%)

• Argentina (J) @ -300 → +4.6% edge (model 79.7%)

• Australia (D) @ +700 → +4.6% edge (model 17.1%)

• France (I) @ -250 → +4.5% edge (model 75.9%)

• Paraguay (D) @ +375 → +4.2% edge (model 25.2%)

• Colombia (K) @ +250 → +4.2% edge (model 32.8%)

(Strong fades on the other side include USA, Germany, Mexico, Canada, Belgium, etc.)

2. Advance (Yes / Qualify) Value (p_advance vs american_odds_yes)

+EV bets (model p_advance > implied from the yes odds):

• Qatar (B) @ +300 → +19.6% edge (model 44.6%)

• Australia (D) @ -110 → +12.1% edge (model 64.5%)

• Iran (G) @ -200 → +11.1% edge (model 77.7%)

• Turkey (D) @ -400 → +10.0% edge (model 90.0%)

• Paraguay (D) @ -200 → +8.6% edge (model 75.3%)

• Panama (L) @ +175 → +7.9% edge (model 44.2%)

• Uzbekistan (K) @ +162 → +7.7% edge (model 45.9%)

• Curaçao (E) @ +900 → +6.2% edge (model 16.2%)

• Japan (F) @ -350 → +4.2% edge (model 82.0%)

• South Korea (A) @ -275 → +3.8% edge (model 77.1%)

• Croatia (L) @ -450 → +3.6% edge (model 85.5%)

(Strong fades on the advance side include USA, Ghana, Canada, DR Congo, etc.)

3. Dont Advance (No) Value (model 1 - p_advance vs implied from american_odds_no)

+EV bets on the No side (model thinks the team is more likely to miss advancement than the no-odds imply):

• USA (D) @ +450 → +38.9% edge (model p_dont 57.1%)

• Ghana (L) @ +100 → +19.8% edge (model p_dont 69.8%)

• Canada (B) @ +450 → +16.2% edge (model p_dont 34.4%)

• DR Congo (K) @ -150 → +12.9% edge (model p_dont 72.9%)

• Jordan (J) @ -334 → +8.3% edge (model p_dont 85.2%)

• Mexico (A) @ +600 → +6.5% edge (model p_dont 20.8%)

• Iraq (I) @ -450 → +6.3% edge (model p_dont 88.1%)

• Tunisia (F) @ -175 → +5.4% edge (model p_dont 69.0%)

• Ivory Coast (E) @ +300 → +4.0% edge (model p_dont 29.0%)

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1-2.5% Over x.5 Penalty Shootouts (good to over 7.5 at 50c/+100)
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1% Winning Continent South America at 22c (good to at 30c)
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