World Cup Group B - My Pick

1% Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina to draw at 27c
OR
1% Canada not to defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina at 46c
OR
Some combination of the above

I'm going to keep this super brief as my wife's parents are visiting and as they are Bosnian we will be cheering for Bosnia and Herzegovina tonight. Basically what this comes down to is how close Bosnia will be able to keep the game against a Canada team that is technically very strong but can struggle to convert possession dominance into goals. We have seen this over quite a few friendlies where they just haven't quite had that cutting edge to put teams away. They face a Bosnian team that qualified via the European playoffs and beat both Wales and Italy on penalties.

Bosnia have been doing better under Sergej Barbarez who took an underperforming team with some ego issues and built a team with a tough defence but with young attacking talent coming through. What is notable is they don't panic when they go behind. They conceded an early goal to Italy in the playoff final and they amped up their attack but without leaving themselves particularly exposed in the process. Italy went down to ten men, Bosnia equalised and they kept their composure on penalties to reach their second World Cup.

Historically teams from the Balkans when they develop a sense of coherence tend to be hard to break down and aren't volatile with respect to changes in the game state. If they go behind against Canada tonight I would still give them a good chance of snatching an equaliser. Italy may not be the force they once were but knocking them out is still no mean feat and the manner in which they did so is the kind of tactical setup that can make it difficult for a team like Canada to score. Today's weather in Toronto is mid 20s Celsius and moderate humidity but these conditions are not uncommon in the Balkans during the summer time.

I got a partial fill for the draw at 26c but that line has since moved up a bit I like Canada not to win at 46c but in tournament football, there is a stronger game state dependence than in club football which can put upwards pressure on draw probabilities. So feel free to mix these positions if you like to manage exposure and we'll see how it goes.