World Cup Ivory Coast vs Norway - My Pick

1% Norway not to win vs Ivory Coast at 54c (good to 60c)

We start today's knockout matches with Ivory Coast vs Norway. Ivory Coast have proven to be one of the strong African teams at the tournament, one in which African teams in general have been exceeding expectations. This is partially due to African diaspora who grew up in Europe declaring for them instead of the countries they grew up in. More generally African teams have shown strong athleticism that has allowed them to not only keep games close against teams favoured over them but also to go on the offensive and win the game. Ivory Coast came out on top over Ecuador with a late goal in the first group stage game before losing 2-1 to Germany in a game where they had enough chances to win. They then beat Curaçao 2-0 to finish second in their group on 6 points.

Norway meanwhile were drawn in Group I, alongside France, Senegal and Iraq. They were earmarked as dark horses for the tournament, having won their qualifying group, one which contained Italy (who ultimately failed to qualify). They have star players in the form of Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard alongside a generally quite talented team. Their playstyle is generally built around making the most of Ødegaard and Haaland, with fast vertical breaks and physical presence in the box. They do however leave space on the break, which Iraq attacked a lot in a game which they lost 4-1 to Norway. In the next game Norway beat Senegal 3-2, with a late goal from Senegal to place Norway in second going into their final group stage game against France, with a goal difference one behind that of the French.

Now this is where something very weird happened, something I don't remember ever happening before in a major international tournament. Norway would have topped the group with a win but they chose to rest their star players and play a rotated team against a full strength France side. In the run up to the game Haaland joked that France would probably beat them and go on to win the tournament but it wasn't quite clear that Norway would not play their first team against France. They lost 4-1 in a game where France's offence punished them severely but in spite of that, Norway still created chances and missed a penalty to make it 3-2. Norway were capable of beating France but they chose not to put their best foot forward. Because of that, France have a last 32 tie against Sweden while Norway have to play the Ivory Coast.

The upside for Norway is very clear - rest a few key players who have eight days between games instead of four. A week's rest is generally optimal and teams rotate at club level all the time. What is not so clear is Norway's downside as international football is very different from club football. You can rotate your team before a key Champions League match, take the 4-1 on the chin and move on the the Champions League game because you're already playing 40+ matches a season anyway any you also train together week in week out. International football is totally different because you have limited time together, which means limited number of games to gel well and build cohesion. A 4-1 loss is not something you can hand wave away and pretend it didn't happen, especially when they were capable of winning. I'm not entirely sure Norway believed they could win against France, and that's what I find more alarming than the mere fact of them losing.

Even all of that notwithstanding, Norway are favoured by almost half a goal against Ivory Coast on a neutral venue such as tonight's. I'm sceptical that this matchup isn't closer that what this pre game line would suggest. Ivory Coast are certainly capable of hitting Norway on the break stronger than Iraq did, having players like Amad Diallo and Ousmane Diomande. More generally, when a team has a small number of star players like Norway has, they risk dependence on said players, which is exploitable by other team as they can focus more attention on depriving those players of time and space. Norway doesn't have a enormous amount of squad depth, which is something that can affect them later in the game and into extra time. Overall, Ivory Coast have been defensively quite solid, even if a late lapse in concentration led one of their defenders to keep Deniz Undav onside for what turned out to be the game's winning goal.

Norway rotating against France is a gamble and I'm not convinced the trade off is as simple as it is in club football. Based on how these teams have performed so far in this tournament, I think the pre game lines should be a bit closer so I am sticking with Ivory Coast to avoid defeat in 90 minutes. If it goes to extra time I would lean Ivory Coast to advance to the last 16.