World Cup Last 32 England vs DR Congo - My Pick

1% DR Congo +1.5 at 51c (good to 55c)

The story of England's World Cup so far has been early promise in their opening game against Croatia followed by a dull back down to Earth in their next two games against Ghana and Panama. Despite Thomas Tuchel's team qualifying for the World Cup without conceding a single goal in the process, there was a sense of uneasiness about England this time, not because they lacked talent, both at squad and managerial level, but rather because still nobody quite knows who England are. Gareth Southgate resigned after losing the Euro 2024 final after another campaign where England were very solid at the back but lacking the ability to raise the temperature of the game and find a cutting edge in high pressure situations. Thomas Tuchel was hired to bring in some of the methods that worked for successful club teams, but club methods require the ability to assemble the right players and work with them weak in and weak out. International football does not afford this luxury.

When you look at England's squad, it has an enormous level of talent plying its trade in the Premier League, the dominant league in world football. What is notable once again is who was omitted from the squad; some of the names who weren't brought may have had good reason for not being in the final squad but the overall picture shows that Tuchel's squad is well equipped to play the kind of football he wants to play but doesn't give him the options to change that when needed. Reece James' injury ensures that England do not have a natural right back for today's game against DR Congo and more concerningly, their defence is lacking in offensive power to support England's front line. England's problem was never likely to be resisting sustained pressure from the Congolese frontline. It was breaking down a tough, athletic defensive unit that is likely to line up with five at the back, including two ex Manchester United players in Aaron Wan Bissaka and Axel Tuanzebe. If Marcus Rashford lines up again on the left for England, he will have to show more than a mere half an hour of taking his man on to consistently trouble Wan Bissaka, his former teammate at Manchester United. Known as the Spider for the long reach of his legs while tackling, getting past Wan Bissaka will be no easy task.

This tournament so far has shown that England are a very potent team playing on the break where they are able to outpace their opponents. This was a large part of why there was such a big gap in chance creation in their game against Croatia because they had enough pace to constantly stretch the Croatian back line. When playing against more physical, compact teams, that is when England have struggled in chance creation. England's edge come from through athleticism but they have been lacking that extra bit of guile, that ability to create something from nothing that has characterised the French team, for example. Their attacks have been routed through Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane has dropped deeper to link up play but this does not automatically translate into higher chance generation. Without the ability to consistently stretch play through your entire front line, England's attacks can become predictable.

DR Congo have already played against a possession dominant elite team this tournament, doing so against Portugal, coming out of it with a 1-1 draw. In that game Portugal's midfield was able to recycle possession but without a compelling outlet for their chances DR Congo was able to stay in the game. They did generate opportunities on the break even if they didn't exploit them consistently. This was followed by a 1-0 loss to Colombia, a team that played with venom and pressed them relentlessly. This is a different playstyle from the one Tuchel has with England as Tuchel's brand of football at Chelsea was not possession dominant. It was more based on a tight defensive unit but by the same token his teams did sometimes lack cutting edge in the Champions League against teams who defended deep. England may still well be favoured to win against DR Congo but I don't think this will be a straightforward tie so I would not be surprised if DR Congo kept in close, maybe bring it to extra time and penalties or even win outright before then. Stranger things have happened to England in knockout football.