MiracleManDan’s AI Baseball 7/10/26

Experimental :

It doesn’t seem that we should be getting so many FG plays. I questioned this one, and well, maybe so.

Orioles vs Royals today

Starters are real: Young 3.21 / 1.39 vs Avila 6.64 / 1.57 (ERA delta +3.43).

Why isn’t the model ~35–40% on KC?

The number is a 65% form / 35% LightGBM blend, and neither half treats season ERA like a human does:

Form leg (~50.5% KC) — both clubs are .400; ratings are basically even (4.20 / 4.30). This leg doesn’t use SP ERA at all.

LightGBM (~49.3% KC after calibration) — SP ERA is a feature, but for this row it barely moves the needle. Counterfactuals:

Set Avila’s ERA/WHIP = Young’s → blend unchanged (~0.0%)

Swap the two SPs → blend only −1.8% on KC

So the model is mostly saying: “even teams, Royals score more (5.3 vs 4.0 rpg), market has BAL at ~61% — we’re closer to a coin flip.” It is not saying Avila matches Young.

Should you bet it?

F5: no — already filtered out (1.8% edge, no angle).

Full game: yes per live policy — dog, edge ≥ 3%, price ≤ +175 → 1u. That angle intentionally ignores SP quality; our soft-SP sweeps found those dogs were more profitable on rate, not less.

How to think about it

You’re not betting “Avila is fine.” You’re betting “BAL −156 is too short given two .400 clubs.” The ERA mismatch is the story the market is selling; the model underweights that story. That’s a feature of this angle and a limitation of the blend — if you want SP mismatches to veto dogs, that would be a new filter (we tested it; it cut profit).

Bottom line: 50% with a 3+ ERA gap looks wrong to the eye because form dominates and LGBM barely prices SP here. Policy still takes the FG dog at 1u; skip F5.

Anyways. . .

MLB 2026 — Play Analysis

========================================

Generated: 2026-07-10 16:00 UTC

CSV: outputs/mlbf5/bets-2026-07-10.csv

Model: moneyline_blend (warehouse xG when available)

Scan: 15 fixtures → 2 actionable plays

ACTIONABLE PLAYS (2)

1. Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees

   Pick: Washington Nationals (H) | F5 MONEY | FD +124

   Kickoff: 07/10/26 18:46:0 (G15)

   Starters: Washington Nationals Carson Palmquist (7.41, 1.59) | New York Yankees Ryan Weathers (5.64, 1.52) | SP ERA delta -1.77 (away-home)

   Angle: Mid-market dog vs high-brand favorite with non-ace starter

   Model: 54.5% win | Fair -120 | Edge +9.9%

   Units: 3 | ACTIONABLE

   Ratings: home=4.60 away=3.90 | form 0.50/0.30 | mu=+0.74

   Notes: H: Carson Palmquist (7.41, 1.59) A: Ryan Weathers (5.64, 1.52) Model: 54.5% Edge: 9.9% Form: +0.74 Angle: Mid-market dog vs high-brand favorite with non-ace starter

2. St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves

   Pick: St. Louis Cardinals (H) | F5 MONEY | FD +142

   Kickoff: 07/10/26 20:16:0 (G15)

   Starters: St. Louis Cardinals Kyle Leahy (2.63, 1.17) | Atlanta Braves Chris Sale (2.89, 1.54) | SP ERA delta +0.26 (away-home)

   Angle: Home pick with acceptable SP matchup and home brand advantage

   Model: 44.4% win | Fair +125 | Edge +3.1%

   Units: 1 | ACTIONABLE

   Ratings: home=4.08 away=4.42 | form 0.50/0.60 | mu=-0.30

   Notes: H: Kyle Leahy (2.63, 1.17) A: Chris Sale (2.89, 1.54) Model: 44.4% Edge: 3.1% Form: -0.30 Angle: Home pick with acceptable SP matchup and home brand advantage

MLB Full Game 2026 — Play Analysis

========================================

Generated: 2026-07-10 15:58 UTC

CSV: outputs/mlbfg/bets-2026-07-10.csv

Model: moneyline_blend (warehouse xG when available)

Scan: 15 fixtures → 9 actionable plays

ACTIONABLE PLAYS (9)

1. Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees

   Pick: Washington Nationals (H) | GAME MONEY | MGM +135

   Kickoff: 07/10/26 18:46:0 (G15)

   Starters: Washington Nationals Carson Palmquist (7.41, 1.59) | New York Yankees Ryan Weathers (5.64, 1.52) | SP ERA delta -1.77 (away-home)

   Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

   Model: 53.3% win | Fair -114 | Edge +10.8%

   Units: 3 | ACTIONABLE

   Ratings: home=4.73 away=3.77 | form 0.60/0.30 | mu=+1.00

   Notes: H: Carson Palmquist (7.41, 1.59) A: Ryan Weathers (5.64, 1.52) Model: 53.3% Edge: 10.8% Form: +1.00 Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

2. Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks

   Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks (A) | GAME MONEY | MGM +220

   Kickoff: 07/10/26 22:11:0 (G15)

   Starters: Los Angeles Dodgers Shohei Ohtani (3.52, 1.17) | Arizona Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez (1.53, 1.09) | SP ERA delta -1.99 (away-home)

   Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

   Model: 42.0% win | Fair +138 | Edge +10.8%

   Units: 3 | ACTIONABLE

   Ratings: home=4.55 away=3.95 | form 0.70/0.50 | mu=+0.64

   Notes: H: Shohei Ohtani (3.52, 1.17) A: Eduardo Rodriguez (1.53, 1.09) Model: 42.0% Edge: 10.8% Form: +0.64 Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

3. Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians

   Pick: Miami Marlins (H) | GAME MONEY | FD -120

   Kickoff: 07/10/26 19:11:0 (G15)

   Starters: Miami Marlins Sandy Alcantara (3.15, 1.22) | Cleveland Guardians Parker Messick (3.77, 1.13) | SP ERA delta +0.63 (away-home)

   Angle: Home pick when home starter is not much worse

   Model: 61.6% win | Fair -161 | Edge +7.1%

   Units: 2 | ACTIONABLE

   Ratings: home=4.88 away=3.62 | form 0.80/0.40 | mu=+1.30

   Notes: H: Sandy Alcantara (3.15, 1.22) A: Parker Messick (3.77, 1.13) Model: 61.6% Edge: 7.1% Form: +1.30 Angle: Home pick when home starter is not much worse

4. St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves

   Pick: St. Louis Cardinals (H) | GAME MONEY | MGM +140

   Kickoff: 07/10/26 20:16:0 (G15)

   Starters: St. Louis Cardinals Kyle Leahy (2.63, 1.17) | Atlanta Braves Chris Sale (2.89, 1.54) | SP ERA delta +0.26 (away-home)

   Angle: Home pick when home starter is not much worse, Home pick with acceptable SP matchup and home brand advantage, High-edge full-game underdog

   Model: 48.4% win | Fair +106 | Edge +6.8%

   Units: 2 | ACTIONABLE

   Ratings: home=4.08 away=4.42 | form 0.40/0.50 | mu=-0.30

   Notes: H: Kyle Leahy (2.63, 1.17) A: Chris Sale (2.89, 1.54) Model: 48.4% Edge: 6.8% Form: -0.30 Angle: Home pick when home starter is not much worse, Home pick with acceptable SP matchup and home brand advantage, High-edge full-game underdog

5. Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals

   Pick: Kansas City Royals (A) | GAME MONEY | DK +129

   Kickoff: 07/10/26 19:06:0 (G15)

   Starters: Baltimore Orioles Brandon Young (3.21, 1.39) | Kansas City Royals Luinder Avila (6.64, 1.57) | SP ERA delta +3.43 (away-home)

   Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

   Model: 50.1% win | Fair -100 | Edge +6.4%

   Units: 1 | ACTIONABLE

   Ratings: home=4.20 away=4.30 | form 0.40/0.40 | mu=-0.06

   Notes: H: Brandon Young (3.21, 1.39) A: Luinder Avila (6.64, 1.57) Model: 50.1% Edge: 6.4% Form: -0.06 Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

6. New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox

   Pick: Boston Red Sox (A) | GAME MONEY | MGM +115

   Kickoff: 07/10/26 19:16:0 (G15)

   Starters: New York Mets Nolan McLean (3.10, 1.14) | Boston Red Sox Sonny Gray (1.62, 0.87) | SP ERA delta -1.48 (away-home)

   Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

   Model: 52.4% win | Fair -110 | Edge +5.9%

   Units: 1 | ACTIONABLE

   Ratings: home=3.90 away=4.60 | form 0.50/0.80 | mu=-0.66

   Notes: H: Nolan McLean (3.10, 1.14) A: Sonny Gray (1.62, 0.87) Model: 52.4% Edge: 5.9% Form: -0.66 Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

7. San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies

   Pick: Colorado Rockies (A) | GAME MONEY | FD +132

   Kickoff: 07/10/26 22:16:0 (G15)

   Starters: San Francisco Giants Robbie Ray (2.20, 1.01) | Colorado Rockies Tanner Gordon (8.44, 1.83) | SP ERA delta +6.23 (away-home)

   Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

   Model: 47.6% win | Fair +110 | Edge +4.5%

   Units: 1 | ACTIONABLE

   Ratings: home=4.06 away=4.44 | form 0.40/0.50 | mu=-0.34

   Notes: H: Robbie Ray (2.20, 1.01) A: Tanner Gordon (8.44, 1.83) Model: 47.6% Edge: 4.5% Form: -0.34 Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

8. Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros

   Pick: Texas Rangers (H) | GAME MONEY | DK +119

   Kickoff: 07/10/26 20:06:0 (G15)

   Starters: Texas Rangers Cal Quantrill (7.11, 1.53) | Houston Astros Hunter Brown (4.01, 1.30) | SP ERA delta -3.09 (away-home)

   Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

   Model: 49.8% win | Fair +101 | Edge +4.1%

   Units: 1 | ACTIONABLE

   Ratings: home=4.35 away=4.15 | form 0.60/0.50 | mu=+0.24

   Notes: H: Cal Quantrill (7.11, 1.53) A: Hunter Brown (4.01, 1.30) Model: 49.8% Edge: 4.1% Form: +0.24 Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

9. San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays

   Pick: Toronto Blue Jays (A) | GAME MONEY | MGM +105

   Kickoff: 07/10/26 21:41:0 (G15)

   Starters: San Diego Padres JP Sears (4.97, 1.46) | Toronto Blue Jays Shane Bieber (6.29, 1.60) | SP ERA delta +1.31 (away-home)

   Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

   Model: 52.2% win | Fair -109 | Edge +3.5%

   Units: 1 | ACTIONABLE

   Ratings: home=4.02 away=4.48 | form 0.30/0.50 | mu=-0.42

   Notes: H: JP Sears (4.97, 1.46) A: Shane Bieber (6.29, 1.60) Model: 52.2% Edge: 3.5% Form: -0.42 Angle: High-edge full-game underdog