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DannyWalter@MiracleManDan

4 hours ago

MiracleManDan’s AI Baseball 7/17/26

Experimental

MLB Full Game 2026 — Play Analysis

========================================

Generated: 2026-07-17 16:18 UTC

CSV: outputs/mlbfg/bets-2026-07-17.csv

Model: moneyline_blend (warehouse xG when available)

Scan: 15 fixtures → 3 actionable plays

ACTIONABLE PLAYS (3)

1. Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants

Pick: San Francisco Giants (A) | GAME MONEY | MGM +165

Kickoff: 07/17/26 22:11:0 (G16)

Starters: Seattle Mariners Bryce Miller (2.93, 0.88) | San Francisco Giants Landen Roupp (4.94, 1.35) | SP ERA delta +2.00 (away-home)

Angle: High-edge full-game underdog (≤ +175)

Model: 49.1% win | Fair +103 | Edge +11.4%

Units: 4 | ACTIONABLE

Ratings: home=4.07 away=4.43 | form 0.40/0.50 | mu=-0.32

Notes: H: Bryce Miller (2.93, 0.88) A: Landen Roupp (4.94, 1.35) Model: 49.1% Edge: 11.4% Form: -0.32 Angle: High-edge full-game underdog (≤ +175)

2. Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins

Pick: Miami Marlins (A) | GAME MONEY | FD +128

Kickoff: 07/17/26 19:41:0 (G16)

Starters: Milwaukee Brewers Logan Henderson (2.73, 0.91) | Miami Marlins Sandy Alcantara (3.24, 1.23) | SP ERA delta +0.51 (away-home)

Angle: High-edge full-game underdog (≤ +175)

Model: 49.8% win | Fair +101 | Edge +5.9%

Units: 1 | ACTIONABLE

Ratings: home=4.23 away=4.27 | form 0.60/0.60 | mu=+0.00

Notes: H: Logan Henderson (2.73, 0.91) A: Sandy Alcantara (3.24, 1.23) Model: 49.8% Edge: 5.9% Form: +0.00 Angle: High-edge full-game underdog (≤ +175)

3. Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota Twins

Pick: Minnesota Twins (A) | GAME MONEY | MGM +125

Kickoff: 07/17/26 20:06:0 (G16)

Starters: Chicago Cubs Colin Rea (4.62, 1.62) | Minnesota Twins Bailey Ober (4.71, 1.19) | SP ERA delta +0.09 (away-home)

Angle: High-edge full-game underdog (≤ +175)

Model: 47.9% win | Fair +109 | Edge +3.5%

Units: 1 | ACTIONABLE

Ratings: home=4.29 away=4.21 | form 0.60/0.60 | mu=+0.12

Notes: H: Colin Rea (4.62, 1.62) A: Bailey Ober (4.71, 1.19) Model: 47.9% Edge: 3.5% Form: +0.12 Angle: High-edge full-game underdog (≤ +175)

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