World Cup Final Spain vs Argentina - My Pick
1% Spain to win in 90 minutes at 43c (good to 48c)
OR
1% Argentina not to win in 90 minutes at 74c (good to 78c)
OR
Some combination of the above.
Alright about to kick off so I'll keep this super brief. Argentina come in with a team built around Messi whose big strength is their ability to raise the volatility of the game explosively. Spain is a possession orientated team that specialises in reducing the volatility of the game. Despite a slow start, Spain have grown into the tournament as Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams have gained fitness. Spain have been strong defensively throughout giving up very few chances and concedikg only one goal all tournament. Argentina after an easy group stage have had to fight hard for every knockout win.
This is one of the times when the public side is Argentina, the glamour underdog led by Messi. Spain have been very quietly effective throughout the tournament. Argentina's preferred game state is to be able to raise the temperature of the game until their opponent cannot live with it. This happened against Egypt, England and Switzerland with ten men. Where Argentina have struggled the most have been against teams able to contest them physically, such as Cape Verde and teams that can control tempo, such as Switzerland before the red card. I would see Spain as closer to the latter know and of team.
Argentina generally haven't been atrong in defending leads, dropping the tempo considerably when they go ahead, leading to equaliaers from Cape Verde and Switzerland. Doing the same against Spain is not an optimal strategy as Spain are adept at stretching teams under sustained possession. Spain meanwhile when they take a lead don't concede territory and defend deep. They use possession as a means to control the game and defend far from their backline. Argentina feed on volatility and Spain are among the best in the world at suppressing volatility.
Tonight's final will come down to volatility management. I would give Spain the edge in managing that volatility.
