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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.

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MajorWedgy@MajorWedgy

3 hours ago

I ran the algorithm a second time and there is a potential rain threat in threat @ PHI @ MIN

Full Straight-Prop Analysis

Top 5 Overs (ranked on projected strikeout strength / blended K/9 + form + efficiency + matchup + modules; live lines ignored for ranking order. Elite Tier locked into Top 3):

1. Jacob Misiorowski (MIL @ LAD) — Elite Tier (blended K/9 13.8). Dominant recent form (9/10/12 Ks in last three full starts). Elite FB Stuff boost. Clear efficiency. Road vs LAD Home SO/G 7.39. No weather or managed flags. High Workload potential. Strongest pure projected strength on the slate.

2. Cam Schlittler (NYY @ TOR) — Elite Tier (blended K/9 11.2). Excellent recent form and command (multiple double-digit K outings). Dome (no weather risk). Solid matchup. Locked Elite protection.

3. Ian Seymour (TB vs BAL) — Elite Tier (blended K/9 10.6). Strong recent stretch as starter; excellent matchup vs BAL Away SO/G 9.65 (high). Dome. Efficiency supported. Locked into Top 3 via Elite override.

4. Jesús Luzardo (PHI @ MIN) — Elite Tier (blended K/9 11.0). Strong recent form (12 K last start). However: Weather Red Flag – Rain Delay / Shortened Start Risk at Target Field. Apply conservative IP reduction and lower main-line conviction. Still protected as Elite for ranking/teaser eligibility (prefer lowered alts).

5. Reid Detmers (LAA vs KC) — Strong / near-Elite (blended K/9 10.4). Recent form mixed but velocity/stuff intact; home vs KC Away SO/G 8.50. Clears K/9 Gate with FB indicators. Extension/movement profile provides ranking boost into Top 5.

Honorable Mentions: MacKenzie Gore (TEX @ ATH, K/9 10.0 — solid but slightly lower projected strength), Joey Cantillo, Jared Jones, Sean Manaea. All others fail the K/9 Gate (≥8.4 or 8.0 + Elite FB/efficiency) or carry heavier risk flags.

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Barnes Brothers: World Cup Preview - Part 2

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1 hour ago

Experimental MLS System

MLS
1% ORLANDO-CINCY TIE 24%
1% CHARLOTTE-COLUMBUS TIE 27%
1% NASHVILLE-MIAMI TIE 25%
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MajorWedgy@MajorWedgy

3 hours ago

🔥 August 15, 2026 Degenerate Special 🔥

Afternoon & evening slate locked with high-K arms! 🔥

Your Locked Open Bets (placed & pending):

1. 3-Leg Parlay — Odds: -162

• Cam Schlittler 5+ Strikeouts (-480) — NYY Yankees @ TOR Blue Jays 3:08 PM ET

• Jesus Luzardo 5+ Strikeouts (-620) — PHI Phillies @ MIN Twins 7:11 PM ET

• Jacob Misiorowski 7+ Strikeouts (-650) — MIL Brewers @ LAD Dodgers 7:16 PM ET

#MLBProps #StrikeoutBets #DegenerateMode 🤑⚾

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

June 02, 2026

OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026

House Elections Projections

The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house

Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:

1930: 52 seat swing

1946: 55 seat swing

1958: 49 seat swing

1974: 49 seat swing

1994: 54 seat swing

2006: 31 seat swing

2026 PROJECTIONS

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

May 30, 2026

Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe.

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

May 15, 2026

Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive

Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary.

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