European Football Review - 19th & 20th September 2026

Some more very interesting games from mainland Europe.

Serie A
Roma 2-2 Inter Milan - there was a minute's silence before this game in memory of Sandro Mazzola, who was an integral part of the Inter Milan team that won multiple Serie A titles and back to back European Cups in the 1960s as well as a European Championship for Italy. This contest was priced as a pick'em with Inter Milan slightly favoured with win price at 39c, game total set at 3 goals and both teams to score at 67c. This was a matchup of two teams that play highly vertical transition based football combined with high pressing. Roma under Gasperini are somewhat more direct in converting possession into attacks and also prefer a more man orientated approach to marking their opponent. Inter Milan are more inclined to use zonal marking and manipulate the opponent's structure to find opportunities. So although this was a matchup where the teams' styles more look similar, there is a vital asymmetry in how they approach gaining an upper hand on the opponent. The central question in this game was could Roma stretch Inter Milan more than Inter Milan could leverage Roma's press against them. The answer to this was Roma were able to do the former in the first half but Inter were able to do the latter in the second half. Roma went 2-0 in the first half with goals from Manu Kone and Inter Milan were 2-0 down for the third time this season. In the second half Inter Milan were able to up their rotations and find space around Roma's press. They scored early in the second half in a goal that was very preventable. Nonetheless, this was not like Napoli's second half against Inter Milan where Allegri had Napoli play more conservatively to defend their lead. Roma kept playing as they had but they weren't able to maintain the same intensity.

As you may have picked up from my previous Serie A reviews, there are often noticeable changes managers make to counter what their opponent has done. There was nothing revolutionary here today. Cristian Chivu spoke of how Inter must start games stronger rather than waiting until the second half to go up through the gears. In the Ultimo Uomo article below, the author refers to the teams being stronger in one hald than the other. We have Roma operating at an intensity that they are not managing to sustain for the full games while Inter Milan treat going behind as a personal insult, even if it means they spend quite a while in the first half being very polite about the whole contest. Inter Milan under Chivu have been behind two goals in seven games in domestic Italian football and have not lost any of them. There is the big question of does this team have a repeatable mechanism for late comebacks that might be underpriced by betting markets, or are we seeing a team with an unsustainable process that is more likely to regress than not? Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool were good at last minute winners but tended to regress badly every few seasons but on the other hand Manchester United under Fergie sustained it for two decades with only very minor transition periods. What is clear is that Inter are comfortable operating in conditions of high volatility. So are Roma and both teams are willing to accept errors as recoveries are themselves opportunities for attack. From a chance creation perspective this was quite an even game with slight edge for Inter, reflecting a game where both sides were able to needle the other but not gain a decisive advantage. There is a case to be made that the pre match betting lines were accurate in this case and that the value may have been in live betting Inter Milan when they were down as Roma's win probability reached into the 80s when they were two goals up. I think the over was the cleanest value here and I would say BTTS had value too.

https://ultimouomo.com/roma-inter-2-2-serie-a-2026-27

Frosinone 2-0 Como - going into this game Como were favoured by just under a goal and a half with win price at 67c, total set at 2.5 goals and BTTS at 64c. Newly promoted Frosinone play a high pressing system which treats defence as attack. Although they don't dominate possession of the ball, they don't rely on defending deep either. This was a game where Frosinone could easily have been behind when Como had three shots in quick succession kept out, something which can inflate xG reads as these are not independent shots, the probability of each being scored is contingent on any directly preceding shots being missed. I will refer back to this later. Lorenzo Palmisani is Frosinone's young goalkeeper and his performance was crucial to keeping Como from taking advantage of the chances they created. At the other end, Frosinone threatened and by the time they opened the scoring it was not their first chance. They were able to do what many teams have struggled with and that is disrupt Como's patient positional build-up and attack them in the space behind their press. Going by chance creation this was a very even game but as I said above that moment in the first half where Como had three shots in quick succession can distort the read a bit. In any case, Frosinone posed a big threat of their own and so I would say there was value on Frosinone as well as the over and BTTS.

Juventus 2-0 Atalanta - before this match Juventus were favoured by three quarters of a goal with win price at 60c, total set at 2.5 goals and BTTS at 53c. With recent injuries piling up, Luciano Spalletti had spoken before the game of the need to prevent Atalanta from dictating possession and the game overall. Juventus were able to get a majority of the ball and make good use of it, taking the lead in the first half. Atalanta under Maurizio Sarri still do not look like a finished product and they didn't have an enormous amount of counterattacking opportunities against Juventus, something which is very important for a team where Sarri insists on a very vertical style of play. From a chance creation perspective there was a very clear edge for Juventus. The expected goals read is enough to imply that even with so many injuries and favoured by three quarters of a goal, Juventus was still the right play. It is understandable to be hesitant after Juventus' loss to Sassuolo but in the previous game they had drawn with AC Milan, not creating as much as they would have liked but they did suppress Milan's chances to a considerable degree. Atalanta meanwhile are midtable with one of their only two wins coming against Bologna, who have since sacked their manager. Their may well have been value on Juventus, the under and no on BTTS but I don't know how representative this game is.

La Liga
Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid - El Derbi Madrileño saw Real Madrid favoured by half a goal before kick-off with win price at 48c, total set at 3 goals and BTTS at 66c. This was a game that had controversy as José Mourinho claimed Atlético Madrid should have had two players sent off in the first half. In the second half Dean Huijsen was sent off for Real Madrid for a foul on Giuliano Simeone and Alejandro Grimaldo scored the resulting penalty. Up until that point it was a very tight game but Atlético Madrid had approached it in a way that successfully suppressed Real Madrid's chance creation. It is well known that both Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior both prefer to play on the left and accommodating them both has been a challenge since Mbappé signed in 2024. In this game both of these players and Jude Bellingham kept going to territory on the left and Diego Simeone responded by matching them on that flank, using his son as a wingback to prevent Real Madrid from achieving an overload on that side. Real Madrid attempted to switch the ball to the other flank but it was never fast enough that Atlético Madrid could not move their shape quickly enough in response. The red card that led to the penalty is not unusual for Atlético Madrid. Both of their Champions League quarter final matches against Barcelona saw their opponent receive a red card while trying to prevent a goalscoring opportunity for Atlético Madrid. In big games against elite opposition Simeone focuses on keeping the defence compact and hitting the opponent on the break through quick attacks. The emergency recovery on the part of their opponent is what makes red cards a very real possibility to change the state of the game. Going by chance creation there was a very clear edge for Atlético Madrid though the red card does distort this. Nonetheless, Atlético Madrid showed very strong game management after going a man and a goal ahead as they used their man advantage to extend their lead, maintain a possession edge and prevent Real Madrid from from finding opening. They did concede a late goal to Real Madrid from a free kick but they saw the end of the game out for a 2-1 win. I think there was value on Atlético Madrid in this game as they were able to prevent Real Madrid's players from solving the problem on the pitch. The expected goals read does imply some value on the under and no on BTTS despite Real Madrid's late goal but once again the red card did distort things, if this game had finished eleven versus eleven you probably would have a lower xG read for Altético Madrid and a higher xG read for Real Madrid. I would speculate that there would still have been some value on the under and no on BTTS because Atlético Madrid were generally able to suppress volatility successfully in this game when they needed to.

Bundesliga
VFB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia Dortmund - before this game Dortmund were favoured by a quarter of a goal with win price at 41c, total set at 3.5 goals and BTTS at 73c. The betting markets expected a high volatility game and with both teams having high press rapid transition orientated playstyles that are typical of the Bundesliga the potential mechanisms were there; nonetheless, BTTS alone was priced very aggressively and you require considerable chance creation from both sides in order to justify such a line. Stuttgart did have more of the ball in the game and did create some opportunities from winning the ball high up the pitch against Dortmund but the resultant chances were very minor. Overall Dortmund defended transitions relatively well in this game and Niko Kovač's side is going more towards being able to better defend the space behind their high press. After Dortmund went 1-0 in the second half Stuttgart kept attacking for an equaliser but we didn't see any significant volatility expansion. There was a clear chance creation edge for Dortmund, enough to for there to be some value on them in this game and we now have potential for Dortmund to cover themselves against the kind of collapses that doomed them last season, such as against Atalanta in the Champions League where they went out after having won the first leg 2-0. I would also say there was value on the game total going under as well as no on BTTS.

Ligue 1
Marseille 1-2 PSG - going into this match PSG were favoured by a goal and a half with win price at 70c, total set at 3.5 goals and BTTS at 63c. PSG's struggles continue even if the match statistics made it seem like a dominant performance. It was a relatively even first half and it wasn't until the second half that PSG started attacking with conviction. They took the lead through Ferran Torres coming off the bench but conceded an equaliser soon afterwards. PSG restored their lead quickly and Marseille then went down to ten men. Despite this PSG did not extend their lead and Nayef Aguerd had a late chance to equalise. Marseille have had a rough start to the season and so were not in a good position to face PSG and even with ten men they were still attacking. Looking at chance creation there was a very clear and obvious edge for PSG but I am still hesitant to say they represented value. They were favoured by a goal and a half so you would expect them to have a considerable chance creation edge. What is really telling is how the volatility of the game expanded in the second half with both teams having quick responses to the goals, even if one of them was a red card. This is one of those cases where we see a high total and BTTS and I think there was an edge on it. With PSG still leaving the door open in the final moments against ten men, I think you could still make a backdoor case that there was some value on Marseille to cover the spread.

We now have the three week international break. Let's see if this gives some struggling teams a chance to catch their breath.