Josh Pate — Week 5 Reaction Show Recap
Sunday, October 4, 2026
Bottom Line
Pate's Ramen Noodle Express went 4–6 in Week 5. He wasn't happy with the week, although he said the season record is still comfortably above .500.
The transcript does not give a complete pick-by-pick Week 5 grading sheet.
The biggest betting takeaway may actually be Penn State–Northwestern: Pate admitted his model loved Northwestern, but he ignored it. Northwestern then beat Penn State decisively.
ACTUAL PICKS / BEST BETS
These are the only wagers in this reaction show that Pate clearly labels as Ramen Noodle Express / Best Bets for the coming week.
Penn State +1.5 vs USC — BEST BET
Pate says he's "seen all I need to see" and puts Penn State +1.5 aboard the Ramen Noodle Express.
His reasoning is straightforward:
> He believes the wrong team is favored.
That's especially interesting because he just spent part of the show burying Penn State after the Northwestern loss.
Buffalo +19.5 — BEST BET
Pate is going back to Buffalo after backing them the previous week.
Buffalo nearly won outright in that game, and Pate says he's happy to take the big number again.
Early Ramen Noodle Express Card
-
Penn State +1.5 vs USC
-
Buffalo +19.5
Everything below should be treated differently unless Pate upgrades it later.
WHERE PATE DISAGREED WITH HIS OWN MODEL
Northwestern vs Penn State — The Big One
This was the clearest Pate-vs-model disagreement of the show.
Pate said:
-
Penn State was a short favorite.
-
His model loved Northwestern.
-
Pate ignored the model.
-
He admitted afterward that he shouldn't have ignored it.
Northwestern then dominated Penn State.
The most absurd stat:
Northwestern outrushed Penn State 413–48.
Northwestern also had 11 individual runs longer than Penn State's longest run.
STRONG OPINIONS / LEANS — NOT OFFICIAL PICKS
Ohio State
Pate was extremely bullish on Ohio State against Iowa.
He said the matchup was about as close to "free money" as you ever get in college football, while also making the usual disclaimer that there is no such thing as an actual guaranteed bet.
His view was that Iowa was still carrying a reputation in the betting market that this year's team had not earned.
He specifically didn't believe Iowa had shown:
Ohio State won 31–14.
However:
This reaction transcript does not establish Ohio State as an official Ramen Noodle Express pick.
So I'd classify it as a strong handicap opinion, not retroactively count it as a pick.
Pate remains very bullish on Ohio State overall and still thinks they can be the best team in the country.
His Big Ten view:
Ohio State's league to lose, with Indiana and Oregon as the main threats.
Georgia vs Alabama
NO PICK YET.
Pate gave a long early breakdown, but explicitly said the full prediction is coming Tuesday.
The market moved from approximately:
Georgia -1.5
To
Alabama -1.5
by Sunday evening.
Pate's biggest questions:
-
Can Alabama knock Georgia off schedule?
-
Can Georgia run the ball against a much-improved Alabama run defense?
-
Can Alabama exploit Georgia if Keelon Russell turns the game into a scoring contest?
-
If Alabama scores 34, can Georgia get to 38?
-
Is Gunner Stockton capable of winning that type of point-trading game?
Do not turn any of that into an Alabama or Georgia pick yet.
Indiana at Nebraska
Pate mentioned Indiana around -8.5 at Nebraska.
But he deliberately refused to reveal what his model thinks because he wants to show Will Compton in person.
So:
NO SIDE
NO MODEL NUMBER
NO PICK YET
TEAMS PATE UPGRADED
Alabama — MAJOR UPGRADE
This may have been Pate's biggest team upgrade of the entire show.
Before the season, Pate called Alabama a:
"Conditional contender."
Meaning the high-end talent was there, but several things had to prove themselves before he would put Alabama alongside teams like Georgia, Ohio State and Texas.
Now?
Pate says essentially all the conditions have turned green.
What changed
-
Keelon Russell has answered the quarterback question.
-
The run game is dramatically better.
-
Tight end has become a major strength.
-
The defense is much better.
-
The offensive line is worlds better.
-
The overall physicality of the team is different.
-
Young elite talent is already contributing.
-
The portal additions have worked.
Pate originally thought Alabama might become an elite team in 2027.
Now he's seeing many of the reasons he expected them to be elite next year showing up right now.
Translation
Pate has moved Alabama from:
High-upside / conditional contender
to something much closer to:
Legitimate national-title-level team right now.
Missouri — MEANINGFUL UPGRADE
Missouri's 45–7 demolition of Florida clearly moved Pate.
The biggest takeaway was the line of scrimmage.
Florida came in as the No. 2 rushing team in the country.
Missouri outrushed them:
220–42
Missouri also had:
Pate is increasingly impressed with Simmons and thinks Missouri could have a quarterback advantage in a lot of its remaining games.
He does not think Missouri will simply out-talent teams like Georgia or Texas.
His point is that Missouri can win through:
-
matchup
-
coaching
-
execution
-
quarterback play
That's a meaningful upgrade.
Georgia / Gunner Stockton — UPGRADE
Pate specifically says:
Gunner Stockton is a better quarterback this year than he was last year.
Against Vanderbilt:
-
25-of-32
-
nearly 300 yards
-
3 TDs
Pate likes how Georgia's offense stays on schedule.
He also pointed out that eight different Georgia players had multiple receptions, which says a lot about how broadly distributed the offense is.
Heading into Alabama, the key question becomes whether Stockton can keep doing that if Georgia gets dragged into a higher-scoring game.
USC — SMALL UPGRADE, NOT FULL TRUST
USC looked dead for a while against Washington.
Washington led:
21–10
USC came back and won:
25–21
Pate's takeaway isn't that USC is suddenly great.
It's:
They're not dead.
That's important after the emotional damage from the previous week.
He still says he doesn't know if he trusts USC against Penn State.
That connects directly to why Penn State +1.5 became his first Week 6 best bet.
TEAMS PATE DOWNGRADED
Penn State — MAJOR DOWNGRADE
Penn State received the Week 5:
Sarah McLachlan Special
Pate basically declared their playoff hopes dead.
After Penn State led Wisconsin 17–0 the prior week, Pate says they were outscored:
58–6
over the rest of that game and the Northwestern game.
The Northwestern loss was catastrophic.
Again, though:
Pate immediately turned around and made Penn State +1.5 vs USC an official best bet.
That's an important distinction.
Team outlook and betting value are not the same thing.
Michigan — MAJOR DOWNGRADE
Pate is extremely concerned about Michigan.
Against Minnesota:
Pate says that if he had to guess right now:
Michigan may struggle to make a bowl.
His bigger concern isn't just scheme or talent.
He describes Michigan as lacking:
And that's despite having plenty of talent.
This is one of the strongest negative team opinions in the show.
Auburn — HARD DOWNGRADE
Pate's breakdown was pretty simple:
> "Auburn's just not good."
He thinks people need to stop expecting a quick fix.
His view is that the rebuild is going to take time, even in the portal era.
Tennessee beat Auburn 24–14 despite only throwing for 86 yards.
Auburn had:
Pate doesn't see a competent product there yet.
Clemson — SIGNIFICANT DOWNGRADE
Miami beat Clemson:
41–13
Pate says Clemson has now played two legitimate high-end opponents:
And Clemson got blown off the field by both.
His only positive for Clemson:
There are no more LSU/Miami-level teams left on the regular-season schedule.
So Clemson may start winning more games without Pate necessarily changing his underlying evaluation.
Florida — VOLATILITY WARNING
Pate doesn't simply call Florida bad.
He calls them a:
High-variance team.
We've now seen both extremes.
High end:
Florida beating Ole Miss
Low end:
Missouri beating Florida 45–7
His concerns:
-
offensive line against better competition
-
secondary quality
-
whether the early-season success is sustainable
-
whether Florida is just a September surprise
Pate thinks the next several weeks should answer that question.
OTHER USEFUL TEAM / MARKET OPINIONS
Miami
Pate says Miami is now doing to Clemson:
what Clemson used to do to everyone else.
His biggest Miami concern is injuries.
Not team quality.
His description of the ACC was basically:
Miami is a travel-team-level program playing in a church softball league.
That's about as strong an endorsement of Miami relative to the ACC as you're going to get.
BYU — POSSIBLY OVERRATED
Pate stops short of planting the flag completely, but says he's:
pretty sure there are more than eight teams better than No. 8 BYU.
He questions the resume and the quality of the Big 12 as a whole.
But this is:
NOT A BETTING PICK
It's an AP poll / team-quality opinion.
Oklahoma
Pate thinks Oklahoma may still have multiple losses coming.
He mentioned their live win total around:
5.5
He also said the offense is terrible and the team just isn't very good relative to what people expected.
HOT-SEAT / PROGRAM INTEL
Not betting picks, but useful context.
South Carolina / Shane Beamer
Pate thinks the situation has probably run its course.
He believes South Carolina can find the money for the buyout and suggested the bye after Florida could be a natural decision point.
Maryland / Mike Locksley
Pate was much more definitive here.
His words were essentially:
He's done.
Pate says the coaching search has already begun behind the scenes.
Florida State / Mike Norvell
Pate thinks the outside narrative is more negative than the internal one.
People around Florida State still badly want Norvell to succeed.
They don't want to fire him.
They also don't want to eat the massive buyout.
So Pate does not view the FSU job as automatically opening.
Michigan
No claim that Kyle Whittingham is definitely getting fired.
But Pate thinks the situation bears very close watching.
His issue is the overall lack of energy and life in the program.
Oklahoma / Brent Venables
Pate thinks this could become one of the more interesting situations in the country if additional losses pile up.
BETTING CHEAT SHEET
OFFICIAL / REAL PICKS
MODEL SIGNAL — NOT A PATE PICK
- Northwestern vs Penn State last week
- Pate's model loved Northwestern.
- Pate ignored it.
- Northwestern won decisively.
STRONG OPINIONS — NOT OFFICIAL PICKS
-
Very bullish on Ohio State
-
Major upgrade on Alabama
-
Upgrade on Missouri
-
Upgrade on Gunner Stockton / Georgia
-
Major downgrade on Michigan
-
Hard downgrade on Auburn
-
Significant downgrade on Clemson
-
BYU potentially overrated
-
Florida high variance
-
USC is not dead, but Pate still doesn't fully trust them
DO NOT TURN THESE INTO PICKS YET
-
Georgia–Alabama — early matchup discussion only; full prediction coming Tuesday
-
Indiana–Nebraska — model opinion deliberately withheld
-
Oklahoma win total 5.5 — discussed, not bet
-
BYU ranking criticism — opinion, not a betting side
-
South Carolina / Florida comments — hot-seat context, not a wager
Biggest Takeaway
The most useful piece of the show may not be the two early best bets.
It may be Penn State–Northwestern.
Pate had a strong enough personal opinion to override a model that loved Northwestern.
The model was right.
Pate was wrong.
And he admitted it immediately.
