European Football Review - 23rd-26th October 2026

Plenty of games to review so let's get straight down to it.

Ipswich Town 1-1 Nottingham Forest
This is a game that can be a little bit more difficult to project because Gary O'Neil doesn't appear to have a settled playstyle at Ipswich Town. Nottingham Forest under Oliver Glasner have a similar style to Glasner at Crystal Palace, which is a defensively compact transition orientated side. On this occasion, Ipswich started out playing more proactively but Forest's transition's threatened, which led to them taking the lead. Ipswich equalised from an unforced error from Forest. Second half Ipswich played more directly but this also suited Forest, who had the better of the chances. From a chance creation perspective Forest had the edge in this matchup even if they did not secure the win.

Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester City
Aston Villa after a rough start to their season have found their feet and they followed this up with a home win over Manchester City. Aston Villa under Unai Emery have a flexible opponent responsive style in which they are willing to press high selectively while packing the midfield when the ball approaches there and playing through a high press when it comes. In this game Aston Villa opened the scoring by taking advantage of a City mistake in defence. After that City dominated chance and equalised in the second half. Aston Villa scored another goal and held on for the win. From a chance creation perspective City had a very clear chance creation edge and yet I still find it difficult to say City were value. Villa were ahead for most of the game so they spent a lot of time defending. City were favoured by almost a goal pre game, which is a very big margin away to another Champions League team. On balance I would be willing to say Villa still had some value in this spot.

Arsenal 2-0 Everton
A routine win for Arsenal, whose physical, positional style based around accumulation of incremental margins was able to successfully suppress the threat presented by Everton's direct, combative style. Arsenal were able to match Everton's transitions and set piece threat and grind out a comfortable 2-0 win. Arsenal were favoured by over a goal anyway so finding value there needed a clear margin. You can argue that margin was there but I think there was cleaner value taking no on both teams to score, which was priced in the early 50s. Since Everton generated very little from a chance creation perspective, both teams to score gave a good payout for the chances created.

Napoli 3-3 Roma
This was a high scoring game in which Napoli once again showed their ability to create chances against a high pressing team to take a two goal lead yet not so much to manage the game and see it out. As against Inter Milan, Napoli's structure was able to hold up against possession and their attacking players were able to cause trouble when they found space but the real story was in the second half when their opponents played more aggressively, Napoli weren't able to maintain control over the pace of the game. Napoli took the lead again not long before the end but conceded the equaliser shortly before injury time. From a chance creation perspective Napoli did have a chance creation edge and despite being at home this game was priced as a pick'em so you can say Napoli had some value here, though I would say there was value on the over and moreso both teams to score because there has been a mechanism for expansion of scoring volatility when one team takes the lead.

Manchester United 0-3 Bournemouth
I have no idea how United were favoured at home to Bounnemouth with all that is going wrong at the club. Their underlying metrics only look superficially sustainable, being heavily inflated by a chaotic 5-2 win over Ipswich. Outside of that, United have looked much less balanced after Carlos Casemiro's departure to Inter Miami. Their structure has changed since last season, with Bruno Fernandes and Matheus Cunha not playing in their strongest positions and their midfield is neither playing a coherent press, consistent positional rotations nor carefully timed transitional breaks. In other words, they are getting the worst of all worlds and Michael Carrick has been a dead man walking since the international break. This turned out to be another game where United didn't pressure their opponents and so Bournemouth had free reign to play like the home team, not the away team and all three of their goals came from very preventable errors. Bruno Fernandes was benched for this game after his comments after Como so United were in a bad position from the very start. Chance creation supported clear value on Bournemouth in this game.

Barcelona 1-2 Real Madrid
This match had a very unusual line, with Barcelona favoured by a goal against Real Madrid, the draw price all the way down in the teens and Real Madrid clear underdogs in El Clásico. The expectation was that Real Madrid would not have consistent answers for Barcelona's relentless attacks yet it was Real Madrid who not only achieved the win but they did so with better chance creation. José Mourinho's return to El Clásico saw him shake up Real Madrid's starting lineup, with Ernesto Valverde starting at right back while Yan Diomandé started up front in place of Vinícius Júnior, who is suspended for four game. This removed a problem that Real Madrid have had since the arrival of Kylian Mbappé, since both of these players have not fit well into the same team. With Bernardo Silva in midfield alongside Aurélien Tchouaméni, Madrid's structure was well equipped to stay tight and look for balls behind Barcelona's high press. Mbappé scored both goals and the winner came from a lightning fast break in which Arda Güler played in Eduardo Camavinga behind Barcelona's defence to provide the finish for Mbappé. I would see Real Madrid as having had value in this match.

https://ultimouomo.com/real-madrid-barcellona-come-jose-mourinho-ha-vinto-clasico

Freiburg 1-3 Bayern Munich
This was a matchup in which Freiburg applied pressure to Bayern Munich's build up but Bayern Munich were able to play through it, which was where they created a fair bit of danger. Freiburg were able to pull a goal back late on and then pressed for an equaliser but Bayern Munich scored a third at the end of injury time to cover the -1.5 spread. Going by chance creation Bayern Munich created enough to imply the -1.5 was value but I would say the late goal distorted this, though this is far from an unusual goal for Bayern Munich to score at the death. From a tactical point of view, Freiburg were able to pressure them but Bayern Munich did have the means to turn it against them. It is difficult to project if there was any value in this game but there might have been a tiny bit of value taking no on both teams to score as that was priced very high to begin with.

PSG 2-0 Lyon
A clash at the top of Ligue 1, it was a competitive first half with both sides getting into dangerous positions but PSG found an edge in the second half, taking the lead later in the second half and adding a second on the break some time after. Chance creation was unusually low for games involving PSG recently and that may have been PSG defending transitions more effectively. There wasn't quite enough in chance creation to justify a substantial edge for either side so I think there was some edge on Lyon +1.5 and no on both teams to score.