Champions League 2rd November 2026 - My Picks

2% Roma to win vs Manchester United at 33c (good to 40c)
OR
2% Roma not to lose vs Manchester United at 55c (good to 65c)
OR
Some combination of the above
1% Manchester United vs Roma over 2.5 goals at 64c (good to 68c)
1% Manchester United vs Roma over 3.5 goals at 42c (good to 45c)
1% Manchester United vs Roma both teams to score at 65c (good to 69c)
1% Aston Villa +1.5 vs Barcelona at 42c (good to 45c)
1% Aston Villa +2.5 vs Barcelona at 62c (good to 66c)
1% Atlético Madrid not to lose vs Bayern Munich at 56c (good to 60c)
1% Inter Milan to win vs Feyenoord at 50c (good to 55c)

We have some interesting games in this week's Champions League so let's get right down to it.

Manchester United vs Roma
It has been a torrid time for Manchester United under Michael Carrick this season and especially since returning from the international break. United have not won in the last nine games and they have drawn twice and lost four times since the end of the international break. United's underlying metrics look horrendous too - there is not a single game where you can say they were unlucky to lose and United have dropped five points out of six in games where they had a man advantage due to an opponent receiving a red card. Their overall distance covered in games is unremarkable but their high intensity sprints have been a source of concern all season in which United have never truly looked in control of any game.

Tonight at Old Trafford United host Roma managed by Gian Piero Gasperini, who employs an aggressive positional system with a man orientated press. United have struggled with high pressing teams for a long time but they haven't encountered a team that employs a man orientated press quite like Gasperini's, at least not since they faced his old Atalanta side five years ago. Admittedly United did draw and win one of those games but this Roma team is a different beast, they're challenging for the Scudetto and they have scored the second most goals in the European top leagues, alongside Real Madrid and behind only Barcelona.

A recent positive for United was their first half against Chelsea, in which they were able to find space on the break and really should have been leading at half time. In the second half Chelsea took the lead and Lisandro Martínez was then sent off for two yellow cards in quick succession, with the second leading to a penalty. Chelsea was not the worst opponent for them tactically as they attack but they don't counterpress intensely to win the ball back so that meant when United won possession of the ball, they not only did not have the same risk of losing it immediately, they also had the chance to play it quickly down the other end. I expect United will still have transition opportunities against Roma, which is why I like both teams to score and the total going over, but Roma's press will mean that if United are in anyway sloppy in possession while playing it out from the back, Roma will be ready to pounce. Their press is particularly aggressive because their defenders are willing to follow their markers further than most would be willing to do in other systems. This means they can build quick and dynamic attacks but they can also give up space going the other way.

United under Michael Carrick are in a desperate position and right now I wouldn't have them favourites against a very dangerous Roma team. Real Madrid showed a way to trouble Roma in their 4-3 comeback but Real Madrid is a very different beast again and that comeback came in a game where Gasperini made defensive substitutions that sacrificed control over the game. I don't think United are well enough equipped to apply that kind of pressure, especially without Benjamin Šeško to provide an aerial threat for balls into the box.

Barcelona vs Aston Villa
Games involving Barcelona have been goalfests and I don't expect this game to be lacking in goals either. What I am focused on is the shape of the game and how that affects the goal distribution. Under Hansi Flick Barcelona are willing to play a very high defensive line allowing them to compress the space and keep up their relentless attacks. Barcelona by the same token leave space in behind for anyone who's willing to exploit it. Not every team does because that is easier said than done but I would give Aston Villa under Unai Emery a good chance to do that. His teams are tactically pragmatic and flexible, willing to tailor their approach to their opponents. This works best when Emery has longer preparation time but since Barcelona has such a consistent playing style it is easier to map out what must be done. I would expect Aston Villa to play pragmatically, to press selectively but without showing too much space at the back and to counterattack quickly into the space behind Barcelona's press. Aston Villa's win against Club Brugge showed that they are able to find that space behind that press and if they do they certainly have the tools to score a couple of goals.

Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich
This is a tough spot for Bayern Munich right now because Vincent Kompany is still absent from the touchline after a health scare and Bayern Munich also have a number of injuries, with Michael Olise fit to play after picking up a knock against Borussia Dortmund but not guaranteed to play. Atlético Madrid are second in La Liga two points behind Barcelona and their 2-0 win over Levante at the weekend showed the growth of a system that allowed them to build a transition from sustained possession in front of their own box. Diego Simeone may not have laid out the blueprint for tonight's game but he has indicated that Atlético Madrid's approach won't be attack attack attack. Against a team like Bayern Munich that presses and attacks so aggressively, I expect Atlético Madrid to defend compactly like they have done against Real Madrid and Barcelona over the past year and to attack quickly into the space Bayern Munich leaves behind. Bayern Munich will still attack even when they have injuries so I expect the transition opportunities to be there and Atlético Madrid certainly have the players to take advantage of them.

Feyenoord vs Inter Milan
One of the bemusing things about Inter Milan is how often they do not start games on the front foot and yet mount enormous comebacks in the closing stages of games. In Serie A they have consistently been able to win games with late pressure but this approach has not worked quite so well in the Champions League. I suspect their approach is particularly well suited to playing against the man orientated systems of Serie A but the Champions League has more zonal systems. Feyenoord play a high pressing style that tends to leave space behind their full backs and that's exactly the kind of space that Inter Milan can exploit quickly on the break. Inter Milan do have some absences to contend with but their system still functions when the players are replaced: they press high and they attack relentlessly with overloads from their wing backs and an aerial threat in the box. Defending late in the game is not what you want to be doing against Inter Milan and Feyenoord have already shown against Barcelona that they have a vulnerability to opponents who consistently target the space behind their defence.

Let's hope for some exciting games!