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• The Cowboys have opened up each of the last two seasons with losses to Tampa Bay, including a 19-3 loss in Week 1 this year. In that game, the Buccaneers Defense held Dallas to just 71 rushing yards. The Cowboys were held under 100 yards rushing just four times this season, going 2-2 in those contests. Tampa Bay will need a similar performance from that defense to be successful on Monday Night. Some good news for the Bucs, they will have DT Vita Vea and DE Akiem Hicks both at their disposal in this one. Hicks and Vea have only been on the field together for 8 games this season, but Tampa is 6-2 when they are both in action. The Cowboy's are 8-1 at home this season, but just 4-4 on the road and haven't won a playoff game on the road since the 1992 NFC Championship Game in San Francisco. They have NEVER defeated Tom Brady. Dallas is 0-7 vs Brady in his career, but this may be their best opportunity to take down the GOAT.

By the Numbers

Cowboys

• Dallas has been exceptional, at times, on both sides of the ball this season. The Defense has forced a league-leading 33 turnovers (17 fumbles, 16 interceptions), forcing takeaways on 16.2% (1st) of opponent drives. They are 5th in the league in points allowed (20.1 ppg), and 12th in yards allowed (330.2 ypg). They've only allowed 9 rushing TD's on the season. A mark good enough for 3rd in that category. The Cowboys D has given up TD's on just 52.0% of opponent drives that have reached the Red Zone, and gives up just 1.65 points per opponent drive.
  On the offensive side of the ball, they have been just as good. Dallas ranks 4th in the NFL in points scored (27.5 ppg), and 11th in yards gained (354.9 ypg). They have scored TD's on an astounding 71.4% (1st) of their drives that have reached the Red Zone this season. They have scored 24 TD's on the ground in 2022, which ranks 2nd in the league. Dak Prescott has played in 12 games this season, throwing for 2,860 yards with 23 TD's and 15 INT's. Tony Pollard had a breakthrough season, rushing for 1,007 yards on 193 carries with 9 TD's. Pollard added 39 receptions for 371 yards and an additional 3 TD's through the air. Ezekiel Elliot added 876 yards on the ground with 5 TD's, but seemed to take a backseat to Pollard for the first time in his career. CeeDee Lamb solidified himself as the Top Receiver in this offense, after the Cowboys dealt Amari Cooper to the Browns in the off-season. Lamb had 107 catches for 1,359 yards and 9 TD's. Dalton Schultz had another solid season at TE for Dallas, hauling in 57 catches for 577 yards and 5 TD's.

Buccaneers

• Tampa Bay's defense was very respectable this season, ranking in the top-half of the league in several statistical categories. They were 13th in the NFL in points allowed (21.1 ppg), and 9th in yards allowed (324.3 ypg). However, they were very sketchy in the Red Zone, allowing TD's on 62.5 % (26th) of opponent drives that reached the scoring area. As bad as they were in the red area, the Bucs D made up for it by showing up big time in 3rd down situations. Tampa allowed a 3rd down conversion rate of just 36.9 % (6th), and that could come into play in a HUGE way on Monday Night.
  The Buccaneers struggles on offense were well documented in 2022. Tampa's offense averaged just 18.4 points per game (25th), and 346.7 yards per game (15th). They lost 12 fumbles on offense this season, which was ranked 27th in the NFL. Tom Brady threw for 4,694 yards with 25 TD's and 9 INT's while completing 66.8% of his passes. Leonard Fournette leads the Bucs in rushing, carrying the ball 189 times for 668 yards and 3 TD's. Backup RB Rachaad White also has 129 carries for 481 yards and a TD in 2022. Mike Evans leads Tampa Bay in receiving, becoming the first WR in NFL History with 1000+ receiving yards in each of his first 9 seasons in the league. Evans has 77 catches for 1,124 yards and 6 TD's this year. Chris Godwin is also a very vital part of the passing game for the Bucs. Godwin has 104 catches for 1,023 yards and 3 TD's for the 2022 campaign.

Key Matchup

Buccaneers O-Line vs Cowboys Pass Rush

• Dallas ranked 2nd in the NFL in, both, Pass Rush Win Rate (52.1%) and Sack Rate (8.6%), and 1st in Pressure Percentage (39%). Tampa Bay ranked just 24th in the league with a Pass Block Win Rate of just 55.2%, and Brady really struggled when facing pressure this season. When facing pressure in 2022, TB12 was 29th in QBR (6.7), 31st in yards per attempt (3.3), and threw the NFL's 3rd most interceptions (6) in those situations. Cowboys DE Micah Parsons has 13.5 sacks on the year, and led the league with 74 total pressures. For the Bucs to be successful, they will have to find a way to slow down Parsons and Co. using play-action, and take some pressure off of Brady. Brady led the league with 154 pass attempts over the final four weeks of the regular season, but only attempted 25 of those passes while using play-action. For the season, Tampa ranks last in the NFL in percentage of plays using a play-fake (15.1%). If the Buccaneers can't establish the line of scrimmage early and find some success in the ground game, the Cowboys D will be able to pin their ears back in the pass rush and cause some serious problems for the NFC South Champs.

From a Gambling Standpoint

• Tampa Bay was a league-worst 4-12-1 ATS this season, that is the second-worst regular-season ATS mark for any team that made the playoffs in the Super Bowl Era. However, Tom Brady is 7-3 ATS in his career as a post-season underdog, including 4 straight outright wins.

• Dallas was 9-7-1 ATS in 2022, but just 3-4-1 ATS on the road.

Trends

• Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in last 11 games following straight-up loss

• Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in last 4 Playoff Games

• Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in last 6 vs Buccaneers

• Bucs are 4-1 ATS in last 5 Playoff Games

• Bucs are 2-7-1 ATS in last 10 Home Games

• Bucs are 3-12-1 ATS in last 16 Games Overall

• Underdog is 5-1 ATS in last 6 Heads-Up Meetings

• UNDER is 6-1 in last 7 Heads-Up Meetings

Prediction

• For the Bucs to be successful, they will have to give Tom Brady enough time in the pocket to do the things he does best. Tampa receivers will also need to be much more reliable than they have been for much of this season when they dropped 29 passes. A mark that was tied for 2nd-worst in the NFL. The Bucs O-Line will also need to cut down on costly penalties in the Red Zone that have haunted them in key situations all season. For Dallas to win their 1st road playoff game in over 30 years, Dak Prescott will need to cut down on the uncharacteristic INT's that have plagued him of late, and not put his defense in tough spots defending against a short field. I don't look for a whole lot of points in this one with two very capable defenses on the field, and I believe this one boils down to Red Zone efficiency. Brady has hurt me, in the past, when I've bet against him as an "Underdog" in the playoffs, and I refuse to make that mistake again. I think his O-Line will provide just enough protection for him to be able to make some key plays down the stretch. However, the Bucs win this one with DEFENSE, intercepting Prescott late in the 4th quarter, halting the Cowboys comeback bid. Setting up a divisional round showdown at San Francisco next week.

Final Score: Tampa Bay 20 Dallas 17

Suggested Bets and Props

• Buccaneers +2.5 -105

• Buccaneers ML +120

• Buccaneers/Cowboys UNDER 45.5 -110

• Mike Evans Anytime TD +150

• Ezekiel Elliott Anytime TD +105

• Tom Brady OVER 28.5 Completions -115

• Dak Prescott OVER 0.5 INT's -175

• Mike Evans OVER 63.5 Receiving -120

• Michael Gallup UNDER 36.5 Receiving -125

• Cade Otton UNDER 24.5 Receiving -115

• Micah Parsons OVER 0.75 Sacks +110

• Chris Godwin UNDER 7.5 Receptions -150

• Dalton Schultz OVER 4.5 Receptions +120

Good Luck Tonight!!

Enjoy the Game and Go Bucs!!!!

-Crickett