News & Notes
· Politics: RFK & Cornel West announce independent bids. Assuming Libertarians and Greens nominate their own, many states will see 4 major third party/independent bids on the ticket. Historically, independent/3rd party polling proves highly variable, with their primary impact on the subject of the popular debate, vote parking by voters unhappy with both major parties and nominees likely to shift to a candidate who can win in close states by election day, and voter participation rates in general. Traditionally, due to the strength and intensity of his voter base, third party success helps Trump more than Biden.
· Economy: Global red flags continue to fly higher, including collateral concerns in the repo market for funding of the EuroDollar system, unaffordable housing markets, yield curve inversion steepening, China internal economic woes, Europe’s continuing recession, rising small business bankruptcies, depressing consumer survey data, poor wage performance for blue-collar workers, strikes at major manufacturers, rising oil prices, credit card defaults spiking, credit access shrinking, student loan payments coming back, inflated prices of core goods, and deflationary credit environment.
· Geopolitics: Ukraine’s offensive fails (as that prediction on their failed breakthrough to the Sea of Azov will soon pay off for those that invested accordingly), war flares back up in Gaza between Hamas and Israel that threatens to extend to the rest of the globe, Argentina experiences its own political revolution as a libertarian populist may win the fall presidential election, the populist AfD breaks through in Germany to the degree the German powers that be contemplate banning it, and global populist rise continues.
Betting Portfolio: Returns & Recommendations
