Barnes MLB Predictions Using Grok AI

Here my attempt at capture Barnes metrics based on his video from 4/18/2025

Concise Summary of 10 MLB Pitcher Matchups (May 22, 2025)
Using precise 2025 and 2024 data from the algorithm compared starting pitchers based on WHIP, ERA, xERA/xwOBA, and K/BB, with weights (2025: 60%, 2024: 40%, recent 5 starts: 10%).

Below are the results for each matchup, listing the favored pitcher, Final Scores, Score Difference, and key stats driving the outcome.

1. Orioles @ Red Sox (Povich vs. Bello):
• Favored: Bello (0.490 vs. 0.333, Diff: 0.157)
• Key Stats: Bello’s better ERA (4.02 vs. 5.23) and WHIP (1.25 vs. 1.35) dominate Povich’s high xERA (5.6).

2. Cubs @ Reds (Boyd vs. Greene):
• Favored: Greene (0.892 vs. 0.815, Diff: 0.077)
• Key Stats: Greene’s elite 2025 ERA (2.36) and WHIP (1.02) edge Boyd’s solid 2.98 ERA.

3. Brewers @ Pirates (Peralta vs. Skenes):
• Favored: Skenes (0.952 vs. 0.781, Diff: 0.171)
• Key Stats: Skenes’ 2024 dominance (1.96 ERA, 5.3 K/BB) and 2025 K/BB (4.0) overpower Peralta’s 2.59 ERA.

4. Blue Jays @ Rays (Lauer vs. Rasmussen):
• Favored: Rasmussen (0.819 vs. 0.802, Diff: 0.017)
• Key Stats: Rasmussen’s higher K/BB (3.2 vs. 2.8) tips the close matchup despite Lauer’s 2.25 ERA.

5. Guardians @ Tigers (Cecconi vs. Jobe):
• Favored: Jobe (0.758 vs. 0.615, Diff: 0.143)
• Key Stats: Jobe’s better ERA (4.12 vs. 5.40) and K/BB (2.5 vs. 1.8) outshine Cecconi.

6. Padres @ Braves (Pivetta vs. Sale):
• Favored: Pivetta (0.842 vs. 0.816, Diff: 0.026)
• Key Stats: Pivetta’s lower ERA (2.86 vs. 3.62) and recent form (2.75 ERA) edge Sale’s 4.0 K/BB.

7. Rangers @ White Sox (Mahle vs. Burke):
• Favored: Mahle (0.824 vs. 0.410, Diff: 0.414)
• Key Stats: Mahle’s elite 2025 ERA (1.47) and WHIP (0.95) crush Burke’s 4.69 ERA.

8. Royals @ Twins (Cameron vs. López):
• Favored: López (0.879 vs. 0.831, Diff: 0.048)
• Key Stats: López’s balanced 2.40 ERA and 3.5 K/BB outweigh Cameron’s 0.71 ERA but low 2.0 K/BB.

9. Mariners @ Astros (Hancock vs. Gusto):
• Favored: Gusto (0.718 vs. 0.602, Diff: 0.116)
• Key Stats: Gusto’s better ERA (4.65 vs. 6.21) and K/BB (2.5 vs. 2.0) prevail.

10. Diamondbacks @ Cardinals (Gallen vs. Mikolas):
• Favored: Mikolas (0.555 vs. 0.512, Diff: 0.043)
• Key Stats: Mikolas’ better ERA (3.77 vs. 5.14) and WHIP (1.20 vs. 1.26) edge Gallen’s road splits.

Top 3 Pitchers

1. Paul Skenes (Pirates, Game 3):
• Final Score: 0.952, Diff: 0.171
• Why: Elite 2024 (1.96 ERA, 5.3 K/BB) and 2025 (2.44 ERA, 4.0 K/BB) make him the top performer. Strong home splits (0.98 WHIP) solidify his edge.web:7,12

2. Hunter Greene (Reds, Game 2):
• Final Score: 0.892, Diff: 0.077
• Why: Exceptional 2025 (2.36 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3.5 K/BB) and 2024 breakout (2.75 ERA) outperform Boyd’s solid but less dominant stats.web:7,10

3. Tyler Mahle (Rangers, Game 7):
• Final Score: 0.824, Diff: 0.414
• Why: Dominant 2025 (1.47 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 3.9 K/BB) and strong recent form (1.50 ERA) crush Burke’s weak performance.web:7,19
Notes

• Data: Sourced from FanGraphs (splits, game logs) and Savant (xERA/xwOBA, e.g., Pivetta’s xwOBA 0.309). Validated with MLB.com/ESPN.web:0,2,4,5,6,8,9,10,12,15,17,19,20,21,22
• Caveats: Limited IP for some (e.g., Cameron, 6 SO) required prorated splits. xwOBA used for Bello, Pivetta where xERA splits were unavailable.web:5,10