Barnes MLB Comparison and Top 3 Matchups

Summary of All Matchups with Score Differentials
1. Reds vs. Cubs: Andrew Abbott vs. Colin Rea
• Favored Pitcher: Abbott
• Score Difference: 0.164
• Summary: Abbott’s elite recent performance (1.38 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) dominates Rea’s solid but lesser stats (3.24 ERA, 1.16 WHIP).
2. White Sox vs. Orioles: Sean Burke vs. Zach Eflin
• Favored Pitcher: Burke
• Score Difference: 0.020
• Summary: Burke slightly edges Eflin with better 2025 stats (4.09 recent ERA vs. 5.04), but it’s a close matchup due to Eflin’s strong 2024.
3. Brewers vs. Phillies: DL Hall vs. Taijuan Walker
• Favored Pitcher: Walker
• Score Difference: N/A (Hall excluded)
• Summary: Hall is excluded due to recent IL return; Walker (2.88 recent ERA) is favored by default.
4. Angels vs. Guardians: José Soriano vs. Joey Ortiz
• Favored Pitcher: Soriano
• Score Difference: 0.148
• Summary: Soriano’s consistent 2025 performance (3.38 recent ERA) outpaces Ortiz’s weaker stats (4.50 recent ERA).
5. Cardinals vs. Rangers: Matthew Liberatore vs. Jack Leiter
• Favored Pitcher: Liberatore
• Score Difference: 0.136
• Summary: Liberatore’s strong recent form (2.52 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) gives him a clear edge over Leiter (3.91 recent ERA).
6. Tigers vs. Royals: Casey Mize vs. Seth Lugo
• Favored Pitcher: Mize
• Score Difference: 0.108
• Summary: Mize’s exceptional recent stats (2.08 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) outperform Lugo’s quality outing (2.67 ERA).
7. Rays vs. Astros: Ryan Pepiot vs. Framber Valdez
• Favored Pitcher: Valdez
• Score Difference: 0.040
• Summary: Valdez’s strong recent performance (3.12 ERA) and 2024 excellence slightly edge Pepiot (3.38 recent ERA).
8. Pirates vs. Padres: Mitch Keller vs. Nick Pivetta
• Favored Pitcher: Pivetta
• Score Difference: 0.104
• Summary: Pivetta’s dominant 2025 stats (2.42 recent ERA, 1.08 WHIP) surpass Keller’s solid but lesser performance (3.24 recent ERA).
9. Twins vs. Mariners: Jordan Matthews vs. Bryan Woo
• Favored Pitcher: Woo
• Score Difference: N/A (Matthews excluded)
• Summary: Matthews is excluded (<10 starts); Woo (2.45 recent ERA) is favored by default.
Top 3 Matchups Based on Score Differential
1. Reds vs. Cubs (Abbott vs. Rea)
• Score Difference: 0.164
• Reason: Abbott’s elite 2025 performance (1.38 recent ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 0.26 xwOBA) significantly outshines Rea’s respectable but inferior stats (3.24 recent ERA, 0.30 xwOBA), making this the most lopsided matchup favoring the Reds.
2. Angels vs. Guardians (Soriano vs. Ortiz)
• Score Difference: 0.148
• Reason: Soriano’s reliable 2025 stats (3.38 recent ERA, 1.20 WHIP) dominate Ortiz’s struggles (4.50 recent ERA, 1.38 WHIP), highlighting a strong advantage for the Angels.
3. Cardinals vs. Rangers (Liberatore vs. Leiter)
• Score Difference: 0.136
• Reason: Liberatore’s excellent recent form (2.52 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 0.28 xwOBA) gives him a notable edge over Leiter’s moderate performance (3.91 recent ERA, 0.32 xwOBA), favoring the Cardinals.
Notes
• Exclusions: DL Hall and Jordan Matthews were excluded due to IL return and insufficient starts, respectively, verified via X posts and FanGraphs.
• Data: Updated 2025 stats from FanGraphs, MLB.com, and Baseball Savant replaced most simulated data, ensuring accuracy.
• Caveats: Limited 2025 innings for some pitchers (e.g., Burke, Ortiz) required minor estimations, but all meet eligibility criteria (10 starts, 20 IP recent, no IL return).