FIFA Club World Cup Preview

So we finally got what everyone wanted and has been waiting for. Yet another month long international tournament after an increasingly gruelling domestic season. All jokes aside, this is a very exciting tournament if you're approaching it from a betting point of view. Due to previous club world cups being ad hoc winter tournaments, there is no direct past action to compare it to. This implies a certain amount of volatility qua pricing. If we are able to take advantage of this volatility, we may do well out of it yet.

This tournament does have a predecessor, the Confederations Cup, which ran until 2017. It was due to be held in Qatar in 2021 but was abolished due to concerns over the sky high temperatures there. The new expanded club world cup was created as a direct replacement for it. Both the regular club world cup and confederations cup were smaller affairs with 8 teams, so each team only played five games at most. This tournament will have up to seven games for teams who reach the final stages, spaced over a month. The club world cup and confederations cup was treated as a competitive tournament by those taking part, but the big teams could take it or leave it. If they won it, great, but if they didn't, nobody ever considered it a big deal or grounds to question the direction the team was going in unless they performed really poorly.

This new club world cup I don't expect to quite play out like that. There's big, big money going into this tournament and whoever wins it will make over €100 million out of it. In European football, that makes a big difference for financial regulations. On top of that, there's a lot more quality competing this time, so it won't be like past tournaments where most of the top teams didn't compete because there could only be one Champions League winner and so on and so forth. The greater depth of field will increase the chances that a South American team will ignite and make a serious push for the title.

There is one important point to note and that is that the European teams competing in this are coming off very long seasons where players unions have been complaining for years about calendar creep as they play more and more games. On the other hand you have other parts of the world where the domestic season is very much underway, so long term fatigue is not going to be as much of a concern for them. Anyone who is coming into this tournament with a squad that is aging, frequently injured or otherwise lacking depth, I would look to sell, likewise any squad that has played a particularly large number of games this season. I would also look out for any of these teams or those who go deep into the tournament to have a slow start next season. In what follows, buy a team means taking any spread, moneyline or futures bet for them to win, sell a team means backing their opponent or buying no on them on tradeable betting exchanges such as Polymarket and Kalshi. With that, here are my provisional leans:

-I'm inclined to sell Inter Milan because they've been running on fumes for months and are competing less than two weeks after missing out on all three legs of a treble. They have an aging squad and played almost the maximum number of games possible for a team in Serie A

-I'm also inclined to sell Man City because the core of their squad has aged and needs to be replaced. Although they did bring in reinforcements in January, Pep Guardiola's system needs players at the top of their game to execute successfully. Without that, I don't see them going the distance

-Slight lean on selling Bayern Munich because I'm not keen on Vincent Kompany as a manager. I think they will navigate the groups stages OK but will struggle in the knockout stages.

-Inclined to buy PSG, they're still a team on the up but price may already have moved in the short term

-Lean on sell Juventus, their squad has underperformed for years

-Neutral on Real Madrid, they appear to be taking this tournament seriously by trying to push Trent Alexander Arnold over the line in time for it

-Leaning to buy Chelsea, although they have struggled in the Premier League in recent years their style of football generally translates well internationally and when they get to the later stages of tournaments they tend to be very good at finishing the job

-Neutral on Atletico Madrid as they have mentality problem in Europe but may do better in an end of season tournament where there's less pressure and their shithousery may be more effective

-I don't really know the non European teams but I think there's a very real chance the winner will be from South America. I don't know enough about the MLS to know if one of their teams has a real shot

The fixture congestion is a point I should underline. There's a certain amount of football fatigue from European football fans who think there's way too much football on as it is. I think we are seeing signs of it taking its toll on European teams as competing on all fronts without a proper break takes its toll. Liverpool after competing an all fronts in 2020 and 2022 drastically underperformed in 2021 and 2023. Man United competed on all fronts for six months under Ten Hag and were totally spent for the rest of that season and arguably it affected their season after as well, with a sluggish start and injuries left right and centre. I would keep a close eye on Inter Milan because I think they will not only underperform in the club world cup after next to no post season rest, I think it will drag in to next season as well with their aging squad. Last year had the European Championships with 24 teams during the summer, this year has the club world cup and next year has the new 48 team world cup. There are going to be players who will be playing for more or less four years non stop and it will effect some teams more than others.

Those are my leans for now. I may have more concrete picks closer to the time.

Edit: just saw Inzaghi left Inter. That's going to make things interesting again more.