New York Mayoral Race Medium Term Prognosis

Scott Adams has been tweeting about the New York mayoral race a fair bit lately. He observes that Mamdani has an uncanny valley quality about him, that he has a "creepy communist smile". Of course, having an off putting manner is not a total barrier to being elected. Take American Psycho Gavin Newsome in California for example. Bill Ackman recently gave an interview in which he concluded that Eric Adams has a genuine smile, unlike Mamdani, and that generally the candidate with the more genuine smile often wins.

The interview is notable for a broader summary from Ackman. In it he reported that he had spoken with both Cuomo and Adams individually and that he doesn't think Cuomo has it in him anymore to lead a charge against Mamdani. Adams on the other hand would be able to mobilise grassroots support in a manner which Cuomo failed to do. He also defended Adams' record and tried to downplay his failings by attributing it to relying too heavily on friends.

Time will tell if this spin will be successful but it gives an indication of the change of direction among the Democrat party since Mamdani's rise. Scott Adams noted that Mamdani is coming under more fire for his "Globalise the Intafada" remarks and that he has been criticised for this both on Democrat aligned media and by the Democrat leadership in the form of Hakeem Jeffries.

My prognosis over the coming months is that the Democrat establishment will increasingly put Mamdani's past under scrutiny. It's not a given that they will rally behind Eric Adams whom they have tried to railroad on corruption allegations in the past, especially since he is running as an independent against the official Democrat nominee.

Now that Mamdani no longer has the element of surprise, let's not forget that the Democrat party apparatus was up until very recently a highly effective electoral machine that was used to getting its way, especially within its own ranks. This same apparatus turned on and supported Joe Biden almost on a sixpence multiple times in order to achieve its objectives. I would not surprised to see those who plotted against Adams begin to covertly support him again. The implications of a Mamdani win in November are if anything far more grave for Democrats than Republicans. The old guard will be directly under threat from its radical wing and they will resort to any means at their disposal to prevent that from happening.

I will leave with a thread which places Mamdani's win into a bit of context against New York's recent history. It will be more accurate to project how the mayoral race will go closer to the time but right now Eric Adam's chances in the online betting markets are between 20-25%. I think it's much closer to 50%.

https://x.com/OwenGregorian/status/1939641161641029696