2% max recommended unless otherwise noted. 1% max recommended for soccer.Â
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SportsPicks
All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.
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Andrew@AndrewPiskadlo
7 hours ago
I created the market for Nancy Pelosi's seat CA-11 on Kalshi. Please go ahead and like it so Kalshi knows it has interest otherwise it doesn't go anywhere.
Last time I did this for a house race OH-9 they completely screwed it up and didn't add the candidates in making the work I did pointless😅
https://kalshi.com/ideas/posts/37690daa-1978-453a-b6d8-2137619ac4da
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Well now, a lot has happened since I last posted about this. Catherine Connolly is now trading all the way up at 96c to win tomorrow's Irish presidential election. Although I believe she is still undervalued, there isn't really much point in entering at this point if you haven't already been following the action. A crucial component of any kind of betting is estimation of uncertainty and factoring the variance due to this uncertainty into account. In my case, I have a very high degree of certainty over who will win this election, so I have placed my highest stake ever on it. If you've been following from afar, this is very much a good to hold or sell if you want peace of mind kind of territory.
Following directly on from this, I was considering giving out a couple of extra picks, on both turnout and margin of victory. I've decided not to because I can truly get a good read on it and part of financial discipline is passing up an ...
