My Pick - Manchester United vs Brighton

1% Manchester United vs Brighton to Draw 25% (good to 28%)

Well well well, my accursed Manchester United managed to string together a pair of wins for the first time under Ruben Amorim. Can they do the unthinkable and win a third game in a row? Yes, they can, and as a United fan I hope they do, but of course I don't bet what I want to happen, I bet what I think is underpriced relative to its probability of happening. Betting markets currently have Manchester United as favourites by around half a goal, so a coin toss to win. Brighton are down as slightly more likely to win at Old Trafford than they are to draw.

I understand why the draw odds are posted so low. Man United and Brighton have drawn only a few times since the 80s and Brighton's style has been very tricky for Man United to handle. In spite of that, United have managed to beat them on more than a few occasions. One of those was with a post full time penalty during the first season of VAR. I don't think this fixture is as volatile as recent results suggest and with Brighton having an OK season so far and United showing more ability to adapt to their opponents under Amorim, I would see the draw as being undervalued at current prices.