Dáil Éireann By Elections - My Picks
2.5% Daniel Ennis to win Dublin Central at 78c (good to about 90c)
(optional) 1% Noel Thomas to win Galway West at 43c (good to about 65c)
Apologies, I have these up very late. I've been burning the midnight oil trying to get a clean read on both of these. Tomorrow there are two elections to fill vacant seats in Dáil Éireann, the lower house in Irish politics. The seat in Galway West is that left empty by Catherine Connolly on her election to Uachtarán na hÉireann and the seat in Dublin Central is the former seat of Pascal Donoghue, who left to take up a job at the World Bank. Probabilistic estimate of Irish elections can be rather tricky because we use proportional representation, so you rank the various candidates in order of preference. A candidate only gets elected when they meet a quote and the lowest candidates are successively eliminated until that quota is reached or there are no more candidates left. Elected candidates have their surplus redistributed in proportional with how their votes transferred the next candidate down. In this case, since there is only one seat up for grabs in each constituency, you would think it makes this task easier. It doesn't. By elections are irregular and constituency level polling is scant and unreliable at best. So getting a clean read can be tricky indeed. I will very quickly summarise what I have for each constituency.
Dublin Central is a constituency in Dublin's north inner city, just north of the Liffey up until around the Royal Canal (the name dates back to the era of British rule but has no connotations with the British monarchy in the present day) and covering the vicinity around Phoenix Park, Drumcondra and East Wall. This is where a lot of working class areas that have been living in the city for generations would be based in the eastern part of the constituency, around the Five Lamps (it's a lamppost with five lamps, it also has a beer named after it), Sherriff Street, Séan McDermott Street and Dublin docklands. In the western side of the constituency you have Smithfield (Margadh na Feirme in Irish as it used to be a farmers market), Stoneybatter and Phibsboro. This is where you may encounter some of the more recently affluent parts of the constituency.
Fine Gael are in a weak position to defend their seat in Dublin Central, as their polling has suffered in government. They have decided to run Dublin Lord Mayor Ray McAdam but it is more likely that this is a preparatory run for the next general election. The three main candidates looking to win the seat are Janice Boylan of Sinn Féin, Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats and Gerry Hutch (a gangster known as "The Monk" for his eschewing of social substances). I have Daniel Ennis as coming out on top after transfers as he's very active at grassroots level, not just politically but in community affairs in the eastern part of the constituency but while also benefitting from the Social Democrat base which is more cosmopolitan and which covers the western part of the constituency. His father was an associate of The Monk, as it would happen so he would far from be an unknown quantity to those putting Hutch down as number one. I expect Hutch to have a strong showing in first preferences as he is the dissident candidate running on the failure of the major parties to listen to their constituents and taking a hardline stance on mass migration, an issue which is particular sensitive in working class areas in the constituency. This means that if you're planning to vote for Hutch, you're very likely putting him number one or transferring from Malachy Steenson. I don't see him being transferred to much from the other candidates. Sinn Féin are generally poor on transfers from the major parties whereas the Social Democrats are very transfer friendly so even if Daniel Ennis doesn't top the poll, I would still expect him to come out on top at the end.
The Galway West pick is optional, partly because it's not as accessible (for US based users on Kalshi, the Dublin Central market is up but not Galway West) and also partly because this is an absolute nightmare to model. Galway West is the western part of county Galway out on the west coast of the province of Connacht. It extends from the western part of Galway City all the way out to the Atlantic coast, including the Gaeltachtanna out that way, areas where Irish is the native language. This is a constituency that traditionally has a strong independent vote and even insofar as it votes for parties, it still gives a lot of weight to candidates who are somewhat independent from the party they represent, such as Michael D Higgins of the Labour Party or Éamon Ó Cúiv, formerly of Fianna Fáil. In the last general election in 2024, the constituency elected Catherin Connolly and Noel Grealish, both independent, as Teachtaí Dála, and longstanding ones at that too. Catherine Connolly is formerly of the Labour Party and Noel Grealish used to be of the now defunct Progressive Democrats. Modelling where their votes go is no easy task.
If I'm being completely honest here, I'm not totally confident of my read on this one. I have several conflicting instincts and I suspect that more will become clear tomorrow. Their are three primary reservoirs of votes: the centre right establishment of Fianna Fáil Fine Gael, the independent right of Independent Ireland and assorted independents and the left wing parties. I'm going with Noel Thomas because the fuel protests were a big deal back in April and he was very active on the ground with the protestors. It was a lightning rod issue so big that it triggered a vote of no confidence in the government which caused Michael Healy Rae to resign his position in government. The Healy Raes are sharp politicians, whatever you think of their general antics, and their instincts of which way the wind is blowing are generally very on track. The fuel protests were a very big deal in rural Galway as there were people who rely on the cost of fuel not being too high to be able to do their jobs. So I'm in effect betting on the whiplash from the protests being so big that it depresses the odds for Seán Kyne of Fine Gael to win back the seat he lost many years ago while at the same time not energising the left enough to take advantage. Thomas' big concern is transfers but then again the left likes neither him nor Fine Gael. Labour, despite it's name, is a less left wing party than you would expect based on its name and it does have some elasticity of transfer between it and Fine Gael. Overall, by elections are generally very treacherous territory for government parties so I'm looking to play the volatility on the side of independents in Galway West. I can see this election being very messy so I'm keeping it as a smaller play.
Due to there being multiple rounds of counting, it can take a very long time before a winner is known. This is normal. Irish elections require ID to vote so it doesn't have the same security concerns that some of you may have encountered in your own elections. Nonetheless, this can take time so let's see how it goes.
A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!
Europa League Final - My Pick
2.5% Aston Villa to Win the Europa League at 74c (good to 78c)
Good ebening.
Tonight is the Europa League final between Aston Villa, their first European final since they won the European Cup in 1982 and SC Freiburg, who have never been in a European final. Aston Villa are managed by Unai Emery, a manager who has been to five Europa League finals, winning four of them. Freiburg on the other hand are managed by Julian Schuster, who played for them most of his career and his finishing his second full season with them as a manager, having been an assistant to Christian Streich after retiring as a player. It is a clash of two clubs who have taken very different paths: Aston Villa are 1982 European Cup winners competing for their first European title since headed by an elite level European knockout manager against Freiburg, a club who built a long term vision during Christian Streich's management that has allowed them to rise with stable foundations. Tonight's ...
Historical Context
2026
2026 Senate
House 2026
Around around she goes; we she ends, nobody knows. Only truly beatable infinity, unless you believe in luck So The Good Thief lead character explains as he sees the ball chase around the roulette wheel. But it wasn't luck that lost me last night; it was failing to follow my own methodologies for the best decision making in the world of prediction markets.
Many of my assumptions held (Mamdani bets cashed to a profit, the Democratic sweep happened, and Morris County flipped to Sherrill, while closest race was the Virginia Attorney General), but a big one didn't -- that 2025 would not bring a record-setting Democratic wave. The wave crested like a tsunami, felt coast to coast, from the northeast to the southwest, from the midatlantic to the mountains, from the industrial midwest to the southern countryside, effecting small town mayoral races in Pennsylvania to Public Service Commission statewide gigs in Georgia, from legislative districts with 36 year incumbents in ruby red Virginia heartland to the most revolutionary Mayor ever elected in New York City since Henry George's failed effort signaled the rise of Populism a century+ ago. Candidate quality did not matter. Candidate spending did not matter. Incumbency did not matter. Job approval did not matter. Scandals did not matter enough or did not matter at all. Get out the vote efforts did not matter. This was an angry electorate seeking vengance, and finding its expression wherever they could.
That was my first mistake, and it was a mistake, rather than bad luck. I assessed the wave risk at 10%, when it was manifestly much higher. All I needed to do was listen to....myself. I went back and watched my last episode w/ Baris and an episode a few months ago with the Duran, the latter where I previewed a collapse in GOP support if Trump didn't escape the foreign focus & wars, delivering only to the donor class. I spoke often of the new MAGA that began to build in 2023 -- young, working class, often minority, deeply unhappy with the political direction of an elder class they are rebelling against, as easily tempted by left populism as right populism, and as easily susceptible to political apathy and agnosticism as engagement & activism. The shutdown was actually a negative tipping factor for these voters, as the SNAP issue played poorly with them, while enraging part of the Democratic base otherwise unenthused up to that point. I made two errors in methodology & one error in psychology I detail below.
The second error was bankroll percentage. It was a single race in a single state; as such, keeping it closer to 5% made more sense than expending it to 34%, especially if more cognizant of the risk. It also shifted my stronger risk appetite onto others, and that was en error I usually well avoid. If I had listed every major election pick this year at 5%, we'd be in the black; even last night, splitting 5% bets amidst the 3 elections, would have only been a modest loss, given certain underdog bets hit with Mamdani. As I often say, but forgot here to practice -- bankroll discipline is the most important aspect of successful trading in the markets, sports or politics.
The psychological error was getting attached to a pick, and not relooking at it from scratch anytime new information arives. A natural tendency is to stay committed to something merely because of prior committment rather than look at it completely anew, and being afraid of taking a loss when once vested in so much hope of a win.
Areas to improve:
Truth is, losses teach you more than wins. Despite as much as I try to track the underlying assumptions of winning picks, the stay-up-top-3-am reearching and obsessing motivation comes from tough losses. In addition, I learn the values of patience, forbearance, discipline, emotional equilibrium, self-belief, as well as better improving a sound methodological approach through "putting my money where mouth is" and sharing it with the world for public accountability and transparency improving decision-making skill over time, maintaining humility when the trap of hubris would otherwise ensnare.
After three decades of successful US elections, my setback in 2022 dramatically improved my analysis for 2024, proving fantastically profitable. Thanks to everyone for participating, hope you continue to partake in the community, and if I were a betting man, and I am, I would wager we will be profitable again, in matters of pocketbook, principle and politics very soon.
