World Cup Groups K & L - My Picks

1% DR Congo +1.5 vs Portugal at 46c (good to 52c)
100 contracts Croatia +1.5 at 69c (good to 73c) and 100 contracts Croatia not to win at 82c (good to 85c) (this requires more capital but it's net exposure of $51 so scale this to 1% of bankroll if necessary)
0.5% No on Both Teams to Score at 53c (good to 56c)
0.5% Under 2.5 goals at 54c (good to 57c)

You may notice that I've included a synthetic position above. It's basically Croatia to either draw or lose by no more than one goal. I've given it in prediction market form but if you want to use a regular bookmaker just convert 100 contracts into $100 total payout including original stake. The two positions require more capital but at least one is guaranteed to hit and profit would come from both hitting at the same time.

Portugal vs DR Congo - We've seen a trend of big underdogs open against top teams by playing a tight, disciplined defensive unit with various degrees of transition threat and keeping the game close. I consider this match to be likely to play out in a similar manner. Portugal have an enormous amount of attacking talent with Bruno Fernandes coming off the season of his life, breaking the Premier League assist record and Vitinha winning the Champions League. They are led up top by Cristiano Ronaldo, now 41 years old. DR Congo are a physically athletic team that is capable of explosive counterattacking moves and they will be looking to take advantage of Portugal pushing their full backs high up the pitch. It is well known that Ronaldo is not the same physical specimen he used to be and DR Congo's defence has more than enough athleticism to match his runs.

The Congolese defence include Axel Tuanzebe and Aaron Wan Bissaka, both formerly of Manchester United. Wan Bissaka was often criticised for his lack of offensive guile but as defender, he was better than many top full backs. One of his specialties was intricately timed tackling that would reach around an opponent's legs and take the ball off the tip of his toe. Portugal have been a consistent winning team but they have not been consistently blowing out opponents and they had trouble in qualifying against Ireland who they only beat very late in Lisbon and lost 2-0 to in Dublin. DR Congo on the other hand have won most of their games this year and generally when they have lost it's been by a goal.

DR Congo's preferred game state is one where Portugal recycle possession but don't have the cutting edge to turn it into end product. If Ronaldo is not able to break through the Congolese defence Portugal do have other creators who can fashion chances but as Cape Verde showed against Spain, you can have all the possession in the world but if you don't have space to leverage it into a chance, it's very difficult to take advantage of it. My question mark would be do Portugal have enough physicality to force DR Congo into more than just placing their bodies in front of the ball all night. That's where Ronaldo not being in his physical prime anymore can make things difficult for Portugal.

England vs Croatia - This is Thomas Tuchel's first real test as England manger having led them through qualification without conceding a single goal. England generally dominate qualification but tournament football is where they have traditionally struggled as there's no one united English way of playing. You generally have players who play in different tactical systems and star players who often overlap in function and previous England managers have struggled to integrate them into a cohesive system. Tuchel is attempting to implement a club style system at national level but that's easier said than done when you don't have a longstanding set of methodologies that players grew up playing, as you have with Austria and Ralf Rangnick.

My big concern is that Tuchel is trying to fit the players to his system rather than the other way around and his squad selection has progressively reduced his options rather than expand them, which can be seen with his omissions of Harry Maguire and Trent Alexander Arnold, two experienced defenders who both bring attacking threat late into the game. England have been playing with more control under Tuchel but they are still reliant on Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham to create chances. If plan A isn't working late into the game I am sceptical of how likely their plan B is. England under Tuchel have undertaken extensive climate preparations to deal with the hot, humid North American summer weather but today's game takes place in the AT&T stadium in Dallas, which you will be very aware is a climate controlled stadium with air conditioning, so I don't expect there to be any appreciable edge from England's climate preparations.

Croatia meanwhile is a team that has overachieved expectations over the last decade through elite game state management mediated by players like Luka Modric who know how to modulate the pace of the game and force their opponents to play the game at Croatia's preferred pace. The Croatian team is older now and so they don't have that same physical execution edge that they used to but they still have a strong defence and Luka Modric at 41 is still playing as a starter in Serie A. I do lean England to take the win but I don't think it will be straightforward. I think both teams are going to want to try and control the game, Tuchel because control is a large part of his risk management philosophy and Croatia because it allows them to manage the game state to their advantage. If one team takes the lead I can see it being very difficult for the other team to score an equaliser. 1-1 is a plausible result but so is 2-0 England with the second goal coming late on.

I suspect that this game will come down to a small number of key moments, which would tend away from the game being a blowout or two teams exchanging blows. If England lead I wouldn't be surprised if Croatia have more of the ball but don't create much with it. Even with Chelsea Tuchel didn't go for domination of the ball like Pep or Klopp did and so his Chelsea team were often willing to sacrifice possession if they could manage their opponent's possession into sterile recycling of the ball. Tuchel is not generally a manager who takes a large amount of risks and so his Champions League teams did on occasion struggle to break down structured teams. Croatia in Euro 2024 did concede some late goals as they weren't the same side as they used to be so I wouldn't be surprised if England do fashion an edge late in the game but overall I am not expecting a game that's high on volatility. Both these teams are comfortable with caution and with the winner well positioned to win the group, I don't think either team is going to be going gung ho on a first pass.