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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.

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MajorWedgy@MajorWedgy

7 hours ago

MLB F5 SYSTEM

Thursday, June 18, 2026

No top tier games were the rest of the day. Soriano is TBD

(Remaining games only – early slate already started)

A-Tier Plays (Diff 1.75–2.49)

• LAA F5 (Soriano over Jump) — Diff 2.4 | 64–66%
• SEA F5 (Woo over Baz) — Diff 2.4 | 64–66%
• KC F5 (Cameron over Liberatore) — Diff 1.9 | 61–63%

Strongest Edge on Slate

LAA F5 (Soriano) — Best overall profile + strong sample (15 GS) and solid Diff.
Close 2nd: SEA F5 (Woo) — Elite underlying metrics (FIP 3.26) + home boost.

Daily Top 5 Ranked Plays

1. LAA F5 (Soriano) — A-Tier, dominant 2026 profile
2. SEA F5 (Woo) — A-Tier, best underlying numbers on slate
3. KC F5 (Cameron) — A-Tier, clean home edge
4. NYM F5 (Manaea) — B-Tier, clear advantage vs struggling Nola
5. NYY F5 (Weathers) — C-Tier, narrow home/K-BB edge
Notes: No S-Tier edges on the remaining slate. BAL@SEA starts at 4:10 PM ET (very soon). Pure pitching model — no odds or market data used.

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Crickett1414@Crickett1414

June 03, 2026

Barnes Brothers MEGA World Cup Preview

01:57:40

Crickett1414@Crickett1414

May 26, 2026

Barnes Brothers Do It Again!!!!

What if someone would have told you that Tottenham Spurs would AVOID RELEGATION by the "skin of their teeth"??

Would You Listen?!?!

IF YOU DIDN'T..... NEXT TIME YOU WILL BECAUSE ALL THE BARNES BROTHERS DO IS WIN BABY WIN!!!!

00:08:15

Crickett1414@Crickett1414

May 26, 2026

Another SportsPicks Winner!!!!

Arsenal Takes Home EPL Crown.... And The Barnes Brothers Told Ya It Would Happen!!

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

August 01, 2023

SEC Preview Podcast

A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

April 02, 2023

Smokehouse Mike's NCAAB

March Madness final four recap and Championship preview...

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

April 02, 2023

Smokehouse Mike's NBA

Live Chat

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

April 18, 2026

LIVE CHAT FOR 2026

Now open!

MajorWedgy@MajorWedgy

11 hours ago

MLB F5 SYSTEM

June 18, 2026 — Early Games Only (3 games)

Strongest edge on the slate: MIN F5 (Joe Ryan dominates).

Best value plays: MIN F5 (S-Tier) and CLE F5 (A-Tier).

Tiered Plays

S-Tier (Diff ≥ 2.50)

• MIN F5 (Joe Ryan over Jack Leiter) — Diff 3.7 | 70%+
A-Tier (Diff 1.75–2.49)

• CLE F5 (Parker Messick over Shane Drohan) — Diff 1.8 | 61–63%

B-Tier (Diff 1.00–1.74)
• BOS F5 (Sonny Gray over Trey Yesavage) — Diff 1.2 | 57–60%

Top 3 Ranked Plays

1. MIN F5 (Joe Ryan) — S-Tier Elite 2026 metrics + heavy recent weighting vs struggling Leiter.

2. CLE F5 (Parker Messick) — A-Tier Outstanding 2026 numbers (low ERA/WHIP) in 14 starts.

3. BOS F5 (Sonny Gray) — B-Tier Veteran edge in a closer matchup.

Key Notes

• MIN F5 is the clear #1 edge today — massive profile gap.

• Messick continues to look like one of the best young arms in the league.

• All three games have clear pitching advantages per the model.

Pure pitching model — No odds or market data used.

Jamie Donnelly@seimiodonnghaile

June 17, 2026

World Cup Groups K & L - My Picks

1% DR Congo +1.5 vs Portugal at 46c (good to 52c)
100 contracts Croatia +1.5 at 69c (good to 73c) and 100 contracts Croatia not to win at 82c (good to 85c) (this requires more capital but it's net exposure of $51 so scale this to 1% of bankroll if necessary)
0.5% No on Both Teams to Score at 53c (good to 56c)
0.5% Under 2.5 goals at 54c (good to 57c)

You may notice that I've included a synthetic position above. It's basically Croatia to either draw or lose by no more than one goal. I've given it in prediction market form but if you want to use a regular bookmaker just convert 100 contracts into $100 total payout including original stake. The two positions require more capital but at least one is guaranteed to hit and profit would come from both hitting at the same time.

Portugal vs DR Congo - We've seen a trend of big underdogs open against top teams by playing a tight, disciplined defensive unit with various degrees of transition threat and keeping the...

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

June 02, 2026

OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026

House Elections Projections

The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house

Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:

1930: 52 seat swing

1946: 55 seat swing

1958: 49 seat swing

1974: 49 seat swing

1994: 54 seat swing

2006: 31 seat swing

2026 PROJECTIONS

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

May 30, 2026

Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe.

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

May 15, 2026

Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive

Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary.

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