Shared post

SportsPicks

Politics • Investing & Finance • Sports

All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.

Interested? Want to learn more about the community?

Show me more content first

MajorWedgy@MajorWedgy

18 hours ago

MLB F5 SYSTEM UPDATE

Ran algorithm again for the late games

Updated top five

Cleveland Indians F5 still the top way

1. S-Tier Plays (Diff ≥ 2.50)
• CLE F5 (Williams over Sproat) — Diff 3.8 | 70%+
• NYY F5 (Rodón over Kay) — Diff 2.8 | 70%+
• WSN F5 (Littell over Avila) — Diff 2.8 | 70%+
• MIA F5 (Alcantara over Painter) — Diff 2.6 | 70%+
• PIT F5 (Ashcraft over Civale) — Diff 2.5 | 70%+

2. A-Tier Plays (Diff 1.75–2.49)
• ARI F5 (E. Rodríguez over Aldegheri) — Diff 2.1 | 64-66%
• CHC F5 (Assad over Sullivan) — Diff 2.0 | 64-66%
• DET F5 (Mize over Lambert) — Diff 1.5 (borderline A/B) | 61-63%
• LAD F5 (Ohtani over McClanahan) — Diff 1.6 | 61-63%

3. Underdog Pitching Edges
• BAL — Bradish carries strong 2026 metrics and volume; slight road edge in a close matchup vs Kirby.
• SD — Canning holds a minor metrics edge over Leahy despite both being below-average options.
• SF — Ray’s veteran profile gives a tiny lean in a near-even game vs Ritchie.

4. Strongest Edge On Slate
Strongest Play — CLE F5 (Gavin Williams). Williams posts elite 2026 numbers (top-tier ERA/WHIP/K-BB in the Fangraphs chart) with high GS volume and strong recent form against a weak Brandon Sproat (poor metrics, below-average K-BB and WHIP). Large Diff and high-confidence sample.
Close second: NYY F5 (Carlos Rodón) — Rodón’s strong underlying metrics and home start vs a struggling Anthony Kay create a near-identical large Diff; excellent process edge.

5. Daily Top 5 Ranked Plays (by Diff + profile strength + sample confidence)
1. CLE F5 (Williams) — S-Tier, elite 2026 form + weakest opposing starter on slate
2. NYY F5 (Rodón) — S-Tier, strong metrics + favorable home matchup vs weak Kay
3. PIT F5 (Ashcraft) — S-Tier, consistent high-end 2026 production vs below-average Civale
4. MIA F5 (Alcantara) — S-Tier, volume leader with solid metrics vs struggling Painter
5. WSN F5 (Littell) — S-Tier, clear metrics advantage vs very weak Avila (low GS/poor ratios)

MLB F5 Edge Scanner v10.0 | June 17, 2026
Pure pitching model — No odds or market data used.

Interested? Want to learn more about the community?

Show me more content first

What else you may like…

Videos

Podcasts

Posts

Articles

Crickett1414@Crickett1414

June 03, 2026

Barnes Brothers MEGA World Cup Preview

01:57:40

Crickett1414@Crickett1414

May 26, 2026

Barnes Brothers Do It Again!!!!

What if someone would have told you that Tottenham Spurs would AVOID RELEGATION by the "skin of their teeth"??

Would You Listen?!?!

IF YOU DIDN'T..... NEXT TIME YOU WILL BECAUSE ALL THE BARNES BROTHERS DO IS WIN BABY WIN!!!!

00:08:15

Crickett1414@Crickett1414

May 26, 2026

Another SportsPicks Winner!!!!

Arsenal Takes Home EPL Crown.... And The Barnes Brothers Told Ya It Would Happen!!

00:08:22

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

August 01, 2023

SEC Preview Podcast

A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

April 02, 2023

Smokehouse Mike's NCAAB

March Madness final four recap and Championship preview...

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

April 02, 2023

Smokehouse Mike's NBA

Live Chat

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

April 18, 2026

LIVE CHAT FOR 2026

Now open!

MajorWedgy@MajorWedgy

14 hours ago

Degenerate Strikeout Teaser

Is now 3-0 for the week.

MajorWedgy@MajorWedgy

June 17, 2026

MLB F5 MLB System Kalshi

Cleveland Indians F5
strongest play

1. S-Tier Plays (Diff ≥ 2.50)
• SD F5 (Rodriguez over Leahy) — Diff ~3.3 | 70%+
• MIA F5 (Alcantara over Painter) — Diff ~3.6 | 70%+
• BOS F5 (Bennett over Scherzer) — Diff ~3.2 | 70%+
• CLE F5 (Williams over Sproat) — Diff ~4.2 | 70%+

2. A-Tier Plays (Diff 1.75–2.49)
• LAD F5 (Ohtani over McClanahan) — Diff 2.3 | 64–66%
• DET F5 (Mize over Lambert) — Diff 1.8 | 61–63%
• NYY F5 (Rodón over Kay) — Diff 1.8 | 61–63%

3. Underdog Pitching Edges
• BOS — Bennett significantly better than struggling Scherzer (strong underdog-side advantage)
• SD — Rodriguez dominant small-sample profile vs Leahy
• MIA — Alcantara clear step up vs Painter
• CLE — Williams far superior to Sproat

4. Strongest Edge On Slate
CLE F5 (Williams) — Largest Diff (~4.2) with established sample for Williams and clear weakness in Sproat.
Close second: LAD F5 (Ohtani) for elite ceiling + home context.

5. Daily Top 5 Ranked Plays ...

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

June 02, 2026

OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026

House Elections Projections

The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house

Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:

1930: 52 seat swing

1946: 55 seat swing

1958: 49 seat swing

1974: 49 seat swing

1994: 54 seat swing

2006: 31 seat swing

2026 PROJECTIONS

Only for Supporters

To read the rest of this article and access other paid content, you must be a supporter

Read full Article

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

May 30, 2026

Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe.

Only for Supporters

To read the rest of this article and access other paid content, you must be a supporter

Read full Article

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

May 15, 2026

Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive

Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary.

Only for Supporters

To read the rest of this article and access other paid content, you must be a supporter

Read full Article

Available on mobile and TV devices