World Cup Groups C & D Round Two - My Picks

1% Scotland and Morocco to draw at 27c (good to 30c)
1% Brazil -2.5 vs Haiti at 51c (good to 55c)
1% Turkey to beat Paraguay at 47c (good to 52c)

We've reached that early stage of the tournament where everyone has played at least once with some teams already having played twice. This is when teams become a little bit more clear on what needs to be done as well as what's to be avoided so there tends to be a little more calculated risk taking now. Let's look at tonight's games.

Scotland vs Morocco - until last week's game against Brazil I believe that the betting markets were pricing in Morocco under their previous manager Walid Regragui, under whom they played a very conservative, defensive style where they could keep it tight against big teams and hit them on the break. They are now managed by Mohamed Ouahbi, who won the U20 World Cup with Morocco. He has brought a more aggressive high pressing style to Morocco while still allowing them to play more defensively when the situation calls for it. After their draw against Brazil, the line moved in Morocco's favour against Scotland, now being favoured by about three quarters of a goal.

I believe Morocco will present a very stubborn obstacle in the knockout stages once again but in the meantime they do have to play Scotland and this is where I do see potential for the game to end in a draw. Scotland is a team which is generally more comfortable being the underdog than the favourite as their strengths are more physical strength, defensive organisation and set pieces rather than dictating the pace of the game and breaking teams down. Morocco's high press was effective against Brazil in the early stages because Brazil were trying to implement a patient passing game and that's when high presses tend to be the most disruptive. They are not as disruptive against more compact physical units that are able to get bodies in the way of crucial attacking laneways. Morocco are generally very disciplined at the back but Scotland do pose a set piece threat so I do think there may be some gravity around the draw for this game.

Brazil vs Haiti - Brazil got off to slow start against Morocco, being disorientated by their high press. This is the kind of game where under previous management Brazil could very well have lost sticking to their more traditional methods but their manager Carlo Ancelotti made quick in game adjustments to tighten up the game. Brazil's lack of full back width made it more difficult for them to break down the Moroccan defence which was more compact when defending and there is only so much the likes of Vinicius Jr can do on their own.

Haiti meanwhile play a much more volatile brand of football where they are willing to play and end to end game and this was evident in their game against Scotland. Against stronger teams they please more conservatively but they generally don't go fully defensive against them. This is the kind of game where Brazil's wing forwards are more likely to get away without needing intricate wing play with full backs to generate chances and Brazil culturally are not the kind o team to rest on their laurels when they have a lead against a weaker team. Ancelotti will now doubt make adjustments for this game as like many Italian managers, he plans for the game that is likely to happen, which includes tweaks specific to the opponent. Since the top of Group C may come down to goal difference, if Brazil are able to find a consistent attacking edge over Haiti, I expect them to keep iterating it to give them the best chance of finishing above Morocco on goal difference if they need it.

Turkey vs Paraguay Turkey lost 2-0 to Australia in a game where they had lots of shots and chances but just couldn't put them away. As a team Turkey is strong at putting together sustained attacks but they can sometimes lack patience which can let them down against more disciplined units and that had a part in them losing to Australia. From an xG point of view they did generated more than Australia which suggests that their issue is not chance creation, it's taking those chances while minimising exposure to the other team's attacks. I would expect Turkey to create their fair share of opportunities against Paraguay and I think they will be in a more comfortable position to dictate the pace against Paraguay who haven't shown the same amount of offensive threat that Australia posed.