World Cup Group L Round Three - My Picks

1% Croatia not to win against Ghana at 48c (good to 54c)
1% Panana +2.5 against England at 55c (good to 60c)
0.5% Panama vs England under 3.5 goals at 53c (good to 57c)
0.5% Panama vs England no on both teams to score at 59c (good to 65c)

Tonight has the last of the group stage games and this will give us final confirmation on the knockout brackets. This post will cover Group L, which starts first. I may add picks over the course of the night so I'm going to do separate posts per group. If you're taking these picks make sure to check my posts before kickoff for any last minute changes as the last games of each group can have very late tactical shifts.

Croatia vs Ghana - I will be cheering for Croatia to get a result tonight but from a betting point of view I do believe that there is some value on Ghana to avoid defeat. Managed by Carlos Queiroz, they play a very tight defensive unit that is good at not giving up easy goals. They drew 0-0 with England in their most recent game, in which they kept England's real opportunities very low. Croatia meanwhile beat Panama 1-0 in their last game but it was a game that was very generally low on quality, requiring one good chance for Croatia to score. They do have an older team, with Luka Modrić at 41 years old still their captain in midfield. They don't have the same recovery pace they used to, which allowed England to turn counterattacks a more athletic team would have snuffed out into real opportunities.

I would expect Ghana to be able to limit Croatia's opportunities to a similar degree to which they were able to limit Panama and England's opportunities. Ghana have generally not been too strong offensively but they are quite athletic so they are capable of stretching Croatia on the counterattack, even if they might not necessarily capitalise on it. Their pace also allows them to close down space effectively against Croatia's attack, which can make it difficult for Croatia to find an edge. The betting markets have Croatia favoured by about half a goal. I would have this game as being tighter than that. Ghana have already qualified and avoiding defeat would ensure they finish second. Croatia meanwhile would move up to second it they win but if they lose, based on how the third place rankings are shaping up, are almost certainly to miss out on the knockout stages. I would therefore see a draw as being a very stable result for both teams and if the game is level late on, I don't see any compelling incentive for either side to take risks for a winner. I do like taking the straight no on Croatia as Ghana have been very solid under Queiroz, who is an experienced tournament manager and I don't think their draw against England was a fluke.

Panama vs England - Thomas Tuchel's tenure as England manager so far has despite England's dominance in qualifying (nothing new as England almost always dominate qualifying) made quite a few people uneasy with his overall decision making. Tuchel's England squad has numerous notable omissions before the tournament and when Tino Livramento was injured before the tournament, Tuchel did not replace him at right back. Now Reece James has picked up an injury that many warned about given his pre tournament injury and now England's squad is progressively finding itself with less and less options for dealing with the obstacles that typically appear at a World Cup.

England vs Croatia was a very open game, more open than England's staff expected and against Ghana England played much more tight but had the usual problems from previous tournaments with breaking down stubborn opposition. England enter this game needing to avoid defeat and at least match Ghana's result against Croatia to ensure they top the group. Panama meanwhile have already been eliminated. Panama's playstyle is very physical and they did defend quite effectively against Croatia though they did struggle to turn their attacks into goals. They are playing for pride against England, but I wouldn't necessarily expect them to abandon their usual style of play. A point for them would still be a massive result.

As far as Thomas Tuchel is concerned, the primary mission is to get the win and top the group. Despite conceding two goals in the opening game, England's defensive unit is very cohesive and I would expect Panama to struggle to create chances against them. Nonetheless, England's back line does offer less going forward than England's back line under Southgate so whatever goals England do score, I consider likely to come from the play of their forward line. I would still expect England to win, but I am inclined against it being a blowout, I can very plausibly see it being one of those games where England go 2-0 and just manage the game pace from their on in with Harry Kane being taken off and kept fresh for the knockouts. England 3-0 is also a plausible scoreline for me and if that is the case the under and no on both teams to score would cover that. I do think Panama can keep this a bit closer than the markets expect given the circumstances.