World Cup Group K - My Pick

1% Colombia not to lose vs Portugal at 50c (good to 55c)

Once again I might add extra picks depending on late breaking news so keep an eye on this before kickoff.

Colombia vs Portugal - Colombia go into this game on top of group K with 6 points while Portugal are in second on 4 points, having drawn their first game against DR Congo. Colombia would top the group with a draw while Portugal would need the win to do so. There is a certain amount of diving into the unknown with this match, since Colombia have an aggressive, high energy press, an unusual style in international football due to the amount of training and coordination it needs while Portugal are one of the best if not the best transitional team in the world. An elite transition team can bypass a press and go straight on the counterattack while an elite pressing side can disrupt a transition side and create chances on their doorstep. Portugal haven't really encountered teams like Colombia much so tonight will be an interesting experiment. This kind of tactical interaction can be an arms race and it may well come down to which team can jump higher, so to speak.

In Portugal's first game against DR Congo, they struggled to create chances and DR Congo were able to hit them on the break, even if they didn't always convert it into real chances. Ronaldo's performance was the target of significant criticism as at 41 years old, he is not in the same physical shape he used to be and his lack of pressing or cutting edge in the box meant that his impact on the game was minimal. Against Uzbekistan, Portugal were able to reliable find space and exploit it again and again and they go into tonight's game on a high from that.

Colombia meanwhile beat Uzbekistan 3-1 in the opening before defeating DR Congo 1-0 in the second game. What stood out at me was the sheer level of venom with which Colombia played. They pressured DR Congo relentlessly, which is not a small task since DR Congo are a very athletic team. They frequently sent in rasping shots from outside the box which does not necessarily lead to goals right off the bat but those kinds of shots can cause parries and deflections, the kind of chaos from which goals can be scored. They played with an intensity that you often see in club football but you don't always see so often in international football, certainly not in a hot humid summer tournament after most of the club seasons have ended.

I would expect Colombia to go out and try and win this game. Their style of play can cause a lot of trouble for a team like Portugal. The big risk is that Portugal are able to play around the press and score goals against an unshielded backline. There are points I would like to highlight. The first is that Portugal's midfield is world class, but it is top heavy. Bruno Fernandes, Vitinha and Bernardo Silva are all top class attacking midfielders but they don't really have a solid anchor in their that is strong at winning the ball back and shielding against aggressive presses. This is not necessarily an issue as certain teams can still manoeuvre their way around that, but this leads me to the second point and that is that Ronaldo is a very big vulnerability to that system. Ronaldo wasn't a high pressing player at his physical peak and he certainly isn't now. If he is not contributing defensively, he needs to be making offensive contributions. If Portugal's midfield is being harried, they are effectively a man down if he is not assisting or providing an outlet to relieve pressure. This is where there is a real risk of Portugal's system being overwhelmed if Colombia's press is able to take off effectively.

Of course, we are not guaranteed that the game will play out like this. It is possible that Colombia play more defensively, but based on how they have approached past games, I don't think they will. It makes sense for them to make a team like Portugal uncomfortable and not to establish their preferred style of playing. Ronaldo will be crucial to whether or not Portugal's system is able to hold up. Teams like Barcelona, Manchester City and PSG more recently have hard working forward lines that support their midfields. If Ronaldo is not supporting the midfield, that is where the real vulnerability lies for Portugal.