World Cup Knockout Stage Futures - My Picks

From pre tournament (still good to buy or hold):

1-2.5% Over x.5 Penalty Shootouts (good to over 7.5 at 50c/+100)
0.5-1% Over x.5 Games go to Extra Time (good to over 10.5 at 50c/+100)
1% Winning Continent South America at 22c (good to at 30c)
1% Brazil to Win the World Cup at 8.2c (good to 15c)
0.5% Japan to Win the World Cup at 1.9c (good to 4c)

New knockout picks:

0.5% Colombia to win the World Cup at 2.6c (good to 6c)
0.5% Morocco to win the World Cup at 1.4c (good to 4c)
1% Argentina to reach quarter finals at 83c (good to 90c)
0.5% England not to reach the quarter finals at 37c (good to 45c)

The World Cup knockout stages begin tonight! I am content to hold the positions from my pre tournament post albeit I could have got Brazil at a better price if I had waited. It was always likely that Brazil would have some teething problems with Ancelotti as he is a manager whose edge tends to show in the knockouts. The betting markets have downgraded Brazil a bit but I still think they are being underestimated by the markets somewhat. They face Japan in the last 16 and I have futures on Japan too, which once again I am content to hold. Japan have been very unlucky with injuries but they do have a coherent team overall and if they manage to upset Brazil, I do like them to continue on from there.

I did like South American teams pre tournament and the betting markets have moved the price of South America to win upwards. This is mainly driven by Argentina who have built a system to maximise the contributions of Messi. In retrospect they were certainly undervalued but now the easy part of that move has already played out. I like them to reach the quarter finals but there they may meet a Colombia team that topped a group with Portugal and if we see a rematch of the 2024 Copa América final, that's where I would be looking at Colombia to sustain betting value. That is a long way out still but the point remains, I like South American teams still and so I'm content to hold on to Brazil, take Argentina to keep advancing, even at current prices, and Colombia as a long shot to win the tournament.

From the European teams on the other hand, Portugal have shown flashes of what they can do but with a 41 year old Ronaldo on the pitch, they are struggling to get away from the feeling of being a set of individuals rather than a coherent team. I still think Portugal do have some good foundations as they do have a solid core of midfield and defence but Ronaldo remains my big concern. Spain have gone down in price after their attack has not fully fired in the group stages but at their current price, they might be about right or even slightly undervalued. Croatia despite showing their age against England showed their experience against Panama and Ghana and now all three occupy the path to the same quarter final. I haven't made up my mind on what fair pricing looks like for this section of the draw so I'm not going to have picks for those just yet. I will probably just take those game by game.

England is a team I had big concerns about before the tournament and those concerns remain now. They beat Croatia 4-2 in the opening game but a lot of that was enabled by Croatia's lack of recovery pace, which allowed counterattacks that a faster defence would have snuffed out to become real opportunities. Against more physical teams like Ghana and Panama, England struggled. They now go into a part of the bracket that contains DR Congo, Mexico and Ecuador, three teams that will present a lot of the same problems the previous two teams presented to England and more. I think there is a real chance England will not make it to the quarter finals and Tuchel's squad selection has certainly not helped his options when it comes to finding a breakthrough in very tight games.

Morocco is a team which I thought was overvalued going into the tournament because I thought they were still being priced as 2022 Morocco, who were the regional overperformer of the 2022 World Cup, with a defensive style where they would play on the break. The manager under whom they achieved that, Walid Regragui, resigned after the AFCON final and was replaced by Mohamed Ouahbi, who won the U20 World Cup with Morocco and he has had them play a more aggressive high pressing style that troubled Brazil in the first game. Despite finishing second to Brazil, they present a real threat and are a team with strong coordination that is difficult to break down. They're the kind of team that can give the Dutch big problems as they will play nowhere near as openly as Sweden did in the group stages.

Finally, a note on France. I was sceptical of them pre tournament due to outgoing manager uncertainty and a top heavy first eleven. I do retain that scepticism but I think France were in retrospect good to have as a pre tournament future as they have gone up a fair bit in value. They are priced quite high right now and there may still be value in taking them to progress through the next couple of rounds but I'm not going to take a clear position on them just yet. Their attack has clicked under circumstances where it finds the space to shine but I still note they had trouble in the first half against Senegal and their 4-1 win over Norway was against a rotated team that did not feature their star players and even then France's defence gave up a fair bit of danger. So I will approach France separately.