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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.

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MajorWedgy@MajorWedgy

2 hours ago

🔥 Degenerate Special June Update 🔥

I started the 2026 MLB season with Strikeout Algorithm v1.0, an evolution of my 2025 Strikeout model. Every time I identified a weakness, I refined the prompt and released a new version.

June started of badly wirh a 2-4 record, then a change based on failure was implemented.

One of the biggest upgrades came with introducing the “Misiorowski Rule”—a change designed to better protect elite strikeout pitchers from being downgraded too aggressively by matchup or betting lines.
Since implementing that update, the model has gone on an 8-day winning streak and is 12-1 since June 10.

The process is simple: identify weaknesses, improve the model, track the results, and keep evolving. 📈⚾

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Crickett1414@Crickett1414

June 03, 2026

Barnes Brothers MEGA World Cup Preview

01:57:40

Crickett1414@Crickett1414

May 26, 2026

Barnes Brothers Do It Again!!!!

What if someone would have told you that Tottenham Spurs would AVOID RELEGATION by the "skin of their teeth"??

Would You Listen?!?!

IF YOU DIDN'T..... NEXT TIME YOU WILL BECAUSE ALL THE BARNES BROTHERS DO IS WIN BABY WIN!!!!

00:08:15

Crickett1414@Crickett1414

May 26, 2026

Another SportsPicks Winner!!!!

Arsenal Takes Home EPL Crown.... And The Barnes Brothers Told Ya It Would Happen!!

00:08:22

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

August 01, 2023

SEC Preview Podcast

A full breakdown of every team in the SEC, including talent analysis, coordinator concern, and schedule forecasts, with win total expectations. Enjoy!

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

April 02, 2023

Smokehouse Mike's NCAAB

March Madness final four recap and Championship preview...

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

April 02, 2023

Smokehouse Mike's NBA

Live Chat

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

April 18, 2026

LIVE CHAT FOR 2026

Now open!

MajorWedgy@MajorWedgy

14 hours ago

🔥 June 28, 2026 Degenerate Special 🔥

Afternoon slate locked with high-K arms! 🔥

Your Locked Open Bets (placed & pending):

1. 2-Leg Parlay — Odds: -155
• Jesus Luzardo 6+ Strikeouts (-330) — PHI Phillies @ NY Mets 1:41 PM ET
• Chris Sale 7+ Strikeouts (-380) — ATL Braves @ SF Giants 4:06 PM ET

2. 3-Leg Parlay — Odds: +130
• Jesus Luzardo 6+ Strikeouts (-330) — PHI @ NYM 1:41 PM ET
• Drew Rasmussen 5+ Strikeouts (-250) — ARI Diamondbacks @ TB Rays 1:41 PM ET
• Chris Sale 7+ Strikeouts (-380) — ATL @ SF 4:06 PM ET

3. 5-Leg Parlay — Odds: +242
• Jesus Luzardo 6+ Strikeouts (-330) — PHI @ NYM 1:41 PM ET
• Drew Rasmussen 5+ Strikeouts (-250) — ARI @ TB 1:41 PM ET
• Gavin Williams 5+ Strikeouts (-750) — SEA Mariners @ CLE Guardians 1:41 PM ET
• Hunter Brown 6+ Strikeouts (-320) — HOU Astros @ DET Tigers 1:41 PM ET
• Chris Sale 7+ Strikeouts (-380) — ATL @ SF 4:06 PM ET

Single Bet
• Drew ...

Jamie Donnelly@seimiodonnghaile

15 hours ago

World Cup Knockout Stage Futures - My Picks

From pre tournament (still good to buy or hold):

1-2.5% Over x.5 Penalty Shootouts (good to over 7.5 at 50c/+100)
0.5-1% Over x.5 Games go to Extra Time (good to over 10.5 at 50c/+100)
1% Winning Continent South America at 22c (good to at 30c)
1% Brazil to Win the World Cup at 8.2c (good to 15c)
0.5% Japan to Win the World Cup at 1.9c (good to 4c)

New knockout picks:

0.5% Colombia to win the World Cup at 2.6c (good to 6c)
0.5% Morocco to win the World Cup at 1.4c (good to 4c)
1% Argentina to reach quarter finals at 83c (good to 90c)
0.5% England not to reach the quarter finals at 37c (good to 45c)

The World Cup knockout stages begin tonight! I am content to hold the positions from my pre tournament post albeit I could have got Brazil at a better price if I had waited. It was always likely that Brazil would have some teething problems with Ancelotti as he is a manager whose edge tends to show in the knockouts. The betting markets have ...

SportsPicks@SportsPicks

June 02, 2026

OFFICIAL PICKS: Midterms, 2026

House Elections Projections

The House tends to be more responsive to midterm dynamics, but, like the Senate, swings hard in elections where some combination of the Four Factors are present -- cost of living crisis or recession; war; major scandal; betrayal or down-ballot realignment. A fun map to use is this simulator, which takes partisan averages from existing models, and plugs in the map based on your adjustment of the generic ballot edge for one party or another. https://globalelectionsimulator.com/#/usa-house

Historic Norms: When a combination of the Four Factors are present, this is the kind of swing you get:

1930: 52 seat swing

1946: 55 seat swing

1958: 49 seat swing

1974: 49 seat swing

1994: 54 seat swing

2006: 31 seat swing

2026 PROJECTIONS

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

May 30, 2026

Barnes Betting Report: Senate 2026

First, four factors dictate whether there is major turnover in the Senate in a midterm election independent of the favorability of the Senate map (due to only one-third of seats being up in any given midterm). Often, as was the case in both 2018 and 2022, is that incumbents are not destined to lose seats, outside of realigning elections in unfavorable maps. This cycle's map favors the GOP, which is why the prediction markets and most forecasters expect a GOP majority in the 2027 Senate. The four factors that prove dangerous to the incumbent party are: first, a recession or cost of living crisis; second, a war; third, a major scandal; and fourth, a sense of betrayal in the voter group that backed the incumbent amongst some portion of their prior electoral coalition. Five midterms feature some combingation of those factors in some significant degree: 1930, 1946, 1958, 1974 and 2006.

Without those factors present in multiple forms, the incumbent party can expect to hold on to seats in states it previously won outside the national margin. When those factors are present, the landscape shifts dramatically. Examining those White House incumbent seats that showed a state-wide election decided by single digits in the prior decade produces the following probabilities: the incumbent White House party lost at least 67% of its incumbent held seats, as much as 85% of its incumbent held seats, and an average of 75% of its incumbent hold seats, rarely upsetting the opposition party in any seat and often losing a surprise or two in seats considered completely safe.

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SportsPicks@SportsPicks

May 15, 2026

Barnes Betting Report: Massie Deep Dive

Based on historic turnout patterns in contested GOP primaries, early voting to date, and a range of polling sources, this is my updated set of forecasts for the Kentucky 4th Congressional District GOP primary.

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