World Cup Last 32 USA vs Bosnia & Herzegovina - My Pick (Optional)

1% Bosnia & Herzegovina +1.5 against the USA at 51c (good to 56c)

Alright, a very quick write up before tonight's game between the USA and Bosnia & Herzegovina. Full disclosure, I am cheering for Bosnia tonight as my wife is from there and I already have USA futures from the official picks to reach various knockout stages so I am trying to hedge out a little bit of profit and create a small middle in the process. That is why I've marked this game's pick as optional. I am a little bit uncertain about how this game will play out so I'm erring on the side of taking a bit of net risk off the table.

Generally speaking, the USA have been very good at this tournament so far. Mauricio Pochettino has spent a lot of time experimenting to find the best configuration for the USA team and it has paid off in the group stages with two wins against Paraguay and Australia to win the group D with a game to spare. The USA then lost their third group stage game to Turkey in a match where there was no need to risk any injuries or suspensions to players already on a yellow card. The USA are a very strong athletic team and their attacks have had a coherent flow with players knowing exactly where their options are when they receive the ball.

Bosnia and Herzegovina meanwhile finished third in Group B behind Switzerland and Canada on four points, thus going through as one of the eight best third place teams. They drew with Canada in their first game before losing to Switzerland in a game they stayed in for a long time but snowballed after a red card while they were 1-0 down. Bosnia then beat Qatar 3-1 in the final game to secure qualification.

In tonight's game I do expect the USA to press hard and make it difficult for Bosnia to mount attacks. Yet Bosnia are a team that is very comfortable with making games ugly and their two playoff games to qualify for the World Cup were both games they won on penalties, including one to deny Italy a chance to compete in the tournament. In spite of the 4-1 defeat to Switzerland, Bosnia don't panic when they go behind and are comfortable with gradually pushing for an entry back into the game. They are strong on set pieces and Edin Džeko even at 40 only needs a small edge of space to score.

The USA despite the progress they have made under Pochettino have still shown some vulnerability in defence. It would be easy to say that the USA's defeat to Turkey can be explained away by saying that it was the third game with the group already won so it doesn't matter, but the mechanisms by which Turkey came back into the game are not new. When defending leads late in the game, the USA can be susceptible to chaos in defence and this was something which came up in the pre tournament friendlies. I do see the case for the USA being able to open up a lead and then expand upon it. Where I am a little bit more sceptical is that Bosnia won't be able to close the gap at some point. It may be pulling a goal back from 2-0 to make it a nervy finish, it might even be a late equaliser. If the game goes to extra time I would still give the USA a strong chance but I would be a little more bearish on their chances if this match goes to penalties because that is exactly the kind of exchange Bosnia is comfortable with. They are a team that has made big progress under Sergej Barbarez and I don't expect them to go down without a fight.

So I think USA futures still look good but this one has potential to be tighter than the betting markets are anticipating, so we'll see how it goes.