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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.

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Jamie Donnelly@seimiodonnghaile

5 hours ago

World Cup Quarter Finals France vs Morocco - My Pick

1% Morocco not to lose vs France at 39c (good to 45c)
OR
1% Morocco +1.5 vs France at 65c (good to 69c)

Alright sorry I haven't been posting my picks in a while, the sheer volume of games means I'm always just running out of time for the next one and as it happens I'm off to the pub for this game so I'm going to keep this super brief.

Morocco have become a very stubborn yet adaptable team under Mohamed Ouahbi. They are capable of executing a high press or defending deep depending on what the situation demands and often within the same game. They have had challenges to present to every team they've faced and so far no opponent has had a full answer for it.

France have been strong this tournament but their team is very top heavy. Against Paraguay France struggled to create chances against a team that didn't give them the open space between lines they like to create at will. Morocco will be the first team that France encounters this tournament that is able to play the kind of right defence that France can struggle to break down but also provide a potential attacking threat of their own two. Morocco's attacking width does increase the risk to France of they push their defensive line too high. France's defence is strongest when their recovery pace can shit down attacks before they can happen. Morocco present the real possibility of making such attacks materialise.

Going I to this game France are favoured by a goal on the Asian handicap. I think this is a bit too much. Morocco is a very solid, competent knockout team that is very difficult to exploit effectively. I think this game will be closer than the betting markets expect. I have gone with the +1.5 because I already have a ticket on Morocco to win the competition but Morocco to avoid defeat is also good I would say and you can even mix and match to create a synthetic +1. I wouldn't be surprised to see this game go to penalties. It will all come down to Morocco's adaptability to keep pace with all the variations of attack France can throw at them and to present a threat of their own. I suspect Morocco will be able to make this close.

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DannyWalter@MiracleManDan

3 hours ago

MiracleManDan's AI Baseball 7/9/26
Experimental

NOTES

New and updated angles fired today. New backtesting results:

Updated live policy for max robust profit: edge ≥ 3%, price ≤ +175.

Current vs new Policy

OLD edge≥5%, uncapped - N 1247 WR 41.2% Flat ROI +5.5% Flat net +68u Sized Net +171u

NEW edge≥3%, ≤+175 - N 1333 WR 46.1% Flat ROI +6.9% Flat net +92u Sized Net +154u

Max sized (3%, uncapped) - N 1685 WR 42.4% Flat ROI +4.9% Flat net +82u Sized Net +201u

Uncapped 3% wins on sized units only by keeping long dogs — rejected.

Cap at +175 is the best flat profit with higher WR.

Bottom line - fg_high_edge_underdog as implemented is projected at +154u for the season. Let's see if we can hit 75u for the second half (theoretical, I am not yet prepared to plunge on bet sizing).

f5 policies remain unchanged.

When both F5 an FG fire for the same game I am taking the one with the highest edge. Will get these combined, but want to refactor the output from csv into a DB first.

MLB F5 2026 — Play Analysis

========================================

Generated: 2026-07-09 18:42 UTC

CSV:...

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