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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.

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DannyWalter@MiracleManDan

3 hours ago

MiracleManDan's AI Baseball 7/9/26
Experimental

NOTES

New and updated angles fired today. New backtesting results:

Updated live policy for max robust profit: edge ≥ 3%, price ≤ +175.

Current vs new Policy

OLD edge≥5%, uncapped - N 1247 WR 41.2% Flat ROI +5.5% Flat net +68u Sized Net +171u

NEW edge≥3%, ≤+175 - N 1333 WR 46.1% Flat ROI +6.9% Flat net +92u Sized Net +154u

Max sized (3%, uncapped) - N 1685 WR 42.4% Flat ROI +4.9% Flat net +82u Sized Net +201u

Uncapped 3% wins on sized units only by keeping long dogs — rejected.

Cap at +175 is the best flat profit with higher WR.

Bottom line - fg_high_edge_underdog as implemented is projected at +154u for the season. Let's see if we can hit 75u for the second half (theoretical, I am not yet prepared to plunge on bet sizing).

f5 policies remain unchanged.

When both F5 an FG fire for the same game I am taking the one with the highest edge. Will get these combined, but want to refactor the output from csv into a DB first.

MLB F5 2026 — Play Analysis

========================================

Generated: 2026-07-09 18:42 UTC

CSV: outputs/mlbf5/bets-2026-07-09.csv

Model: moneyline_blend (warehouse xG when available)

Scan: 7 fixtures → 1 actionable plays

ACTIONABLE PLAYS (1)

1. St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers

Pick: St. Louis Cardinals (H) | F5 MONEY | FD +106

Kickoff: 07/09/26 19:46:0 (G15)

Starters: St. Louis Cardinals Andre Pallante (2.87, 1.05) | Milwaukee Brewers Logan Henderson (2.74, 1.04) | SP ERA delta -0.13 (away-home)

Angle: Home pick with acceptable SP matchup and home brand advantage

Model: 52.4% win | Fair -110 | Edge +3.8%

Units: 1 | ACTIONABLE

Ratings: home=4.79 away=3.71 | form 0.60/0.20 | mu=+1.12

Notes: H: Andre Pallante (2.87, 1.05) A: Logan Henderson (2.74, 1.04) Model: 52.4% Edge: 3.8% Form: +1.12 Angle: Home pick with acceptable SP matchup and home brand advantage

MLB Full Game 2026 — Play Analysis

========================================

Generated: 2026-07-09 18:42 UTC

CSV: outputs/mlbfg/bets-2026-07-09.csv

Model: moneyline_blend (warehouse xG when available)

Scan: 13 fixtures → 8 actionable plays (4 today)

ACTIONABLE PLAYS (4)

1. Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies

Pick: Cincinnati Reds (H) | GAME MONEY | FD +138

Kickoff: 07/09/26 19:11:0 (G15)

Starters: Cincinnati Reds Brady Singer (3.29, 1.24) | Philadelphia Phillies Jesús Luzardo (1.78, 1.12) | SP ERA delta -1.51 (away-home)

Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

Model: 47.2% win | Fair +112 | Edge +5.2%

Units: 1 | ACTIONABLE

Ratings: home=3.96 away=4.54 | form 0.30/0.50 | mu=-0.54

Notes: H: Brady Singer (3.29, 1.24) A: Jesús Luzardo (1.78, 1.12) Model: 47.2% Edge: 5.2% Form: -0.54 Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

2. Miami Marlins vs Seattle Mariners

Pick: Miami Marlins (H) | GAME MONEY | FD +112

Kickoff: 07/09/26 18:41:0 (G15)

Starters: Miami Marlins Janson Junk (7.00, 1.59) | Seattle Mariners Bryce Miller (1.71, 0.54) | SP ERA delta -5.29 (away-home)

Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

Model: 51.9% win | Fair -108 | Edge +4.7%

Units: 1 | ACTIONABLE

Ratings: home=4.60 away=3.90 | form 0.70/0.50 | mu=+0.74

Notes: H: Janson Junk (7.00, 1.59) A: Bryce Miller (1.71, 0.54) Model: 51.9% Edge: 4.7% Form: +0.74 Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

3. San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies

Pick: Colorado Rockies (A) | GAME MONEY | FD +112

Kickoff: 07/09/26 21:46:0 (G15)

Starters: San Francisco Giants TBD | Colorado Rockies Ryan Feltner (4.33, 1.30)

Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

Model: 51.5% win | Fair -106 | Edge +4.4%

Units: 1 | ACTIONABLE

Ratings: home=4.02 away=4.48 | form 0.40/0.50 | mu=-0.42

Notes: H: TBD A: Ryan Feltner (4.33, 1.30) Model: 51.5% Edge: 4.4% Form: -0.42 Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

4. St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers

Pick: St. Louis Cardinals (H) | GAME MONEY | MGM +115

Kickoff: 07/09/26 19:46:0 (G15)

Starters: St. Louis Cardinals Andre Pallante (2.87, 1.05) | Milwaukee Brewers Logan Henderson (2.74, 1.04) | SP ERA delta -0.13 (away-home)

Angle: Home pick with acceptable SP matchup and home brand advantage, High-edge full-game underdog

Model: 50.5% win | Fair -102 | Edge +4.0%

Units: 1 | ACTIONABLE

Ratings: home=4.04 away=4.46 | form 0.50/0.70 | mu=-0.38

Notes: H: Andre Pallante (2.87, 1.05) A: Logan Henderson (2.74, 1.04) Model: 50.5% Edge: 4.0% Form: -0.38 Angle: Home pick with acceptable SP matchup and home brand advantage, High-edge full-game underdog

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