World Cup Semi Final France vs Spain - My Picks

1% France not to win in 90 minutes vs Spain at 62c (good to 65c)
1% Under 2.5 total goals at 49c (good to 55c)
(Optional) 0.5% Match to go to penalties at 16c (good to 20c)

We are down to the last four of the World Cup and the first semi final starts with the two most favoured teams to win the tournament. France have been on fire throughout the tournament, scoring goals and creating chances for fun with a team having world class talent all over the pitch. Spain meanwhile started slow in the group stages but have shown an ability to grind out games without giving up many opportunities. The goal they conceded against Belgium was the first they've conceded all tournament.

World Cup semi finals are where the stakes get quite high, so teams approach them very tactically, trying to shore up their own weaknesses while planning to exploit those of their opponents. Against peer opponents, this generally doesn't make for goalfests. Both teams have elite level midfields that have dominated possession against their opponents as well as defensive lines that can press high up the pitch due to their recovery pace and protection from midfield. Both teams are effective at preventing small openings from turning into chances. Over the course of the tournament, France have been better at chance creation but Spain have been better at chance prevention.

Key lines of attack will be Kylian Mbappé for France and Yamine Lamal for Spain. Mbappé has been lethal cutting in and hitting a shot into the far corner. Yamal has been dangerous doing exactly this but offensively he hasn't really got going this tournament. I expect both teams to pay special attention to not allowing these players easy chances to score from distance. The French midfield's best defence is using their technical ability to keep hold of the ball. The Spanish midfield's best defence is winning the ball high up the pitch and using numbers to prevent France from advancing the ball when they receive it. I lean towards this being a tight game where both teams are able to get the ball in advanced positions but aren't necessarily able to play it around the bodies they encounter there.

I already have futures picks for the number of draws and penalty shootouts to go over. If you don't have those feel free to put a bit of the match to draw or some on the match to go to penalties or some on both. We shall see if this matchup ends up being a bit closer than the betting markets expect.