Deep Dive: National Title Game, Michigan-Washington, January 8, 2024
Miracle Man Dan's Kentucky Derby
It is notoriously hard to handicap 3YOs. This is as much as a trainer/jockey race as any. The best horses generally have the best connections. Breeding counts, but less than it used to.
#17 Fierceness is a legitimate favorite, the most talented horse in the field, and maybe not by a little. Can we counterfeit him? The Pletcher/Velasquez connection is as strong as it gets, so we would have to go on the theory that he gets a bad trip on the outside, and has never yet had to chase a horse. This is the Derby after all, and since we are doing this for fun, let’s take a shot.
In terms of connections, #2 is Chad Brown, #4 and #8 are Brad Cox, #6 is our old buddy D. Wayne, #19 is Billy Mott. We use all of them.
I get legit contenders as #2,4,6,7,8,17,19. #2, Sierra Leone, is a legit 2nd choice, a very hard closer. My long bomb is #3, Mystik Dan. He's got a good name, good form,, and a couple of bad trips.
My handicap play is Fierceness going out front and hanging on to at least hit the board, with Sierra Leone coming late like a freight train.
Tri Power box: 2/17/All - 108 bets, $54
My fun bet, the potential telephone number, is to get Mystik Dan on the board will all the legit possibles filling in the other spots.
Tri Key Box: 3/2-8,11,13,17,19 - 270 bets, $135
And down the stretch they come!
No Show for "Smoke the Spread" this evening... We'll be back with y'all tomorrow at 5:00 PM EST, over on Rumble, on "That Damn Sports Network"... OR... You can find me every morning (Monday - Saturday) on the "Game On" channel, with My Guy Will, at 7:30 AM EST for your "Sports Morning Espresso Shot"!! We Hope You'll Join Us!!!!
Here's What I'm Rollin With Tonight...
THESE ARE NOT SPORTSPICKS "OFFICIAL PICKS"
ALL MY ODDS COME FROM DRAFTKINGS
Deep Dive: Alabama-Michigan Playoff, Rose Bowl, January 1, 2024
Season Comparisons
Yard Per Play
Michigan Offense: 6.1, 43rd
Michigan Defense: 4.3, 4th
Alabama Offense: 6.4, 30th
Alabama Defense: 4.9, 18th
A deep dive, with talent-based power ratings, yard-per-play performance based power ratings, and third party independent database game simulation power ratings, and inidivudal game write-up of each title game. A few sites I utilize often:
https://collegefootballdata.com/teams
https://www.pff.com/greenline/ncaa
https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/
https://collegefootballnerds.com