Deep Dive: National Title Game, Michigan-Washington, January 8, 2024
No Show for "Smoke the Spread" this evening... We'll be back with y'all tomorrow at 5:00 PM EST, over on Rumble, on "That Damn Sports Network"... OR... You can find me every morning (Monday - Saturday) on the "Game On" channel, with My Guy Will, at 7:30 AM EST for your "Sports Morning Espresso Shot"!! We Hope You'll Join Us!!!!
Here's What I'm Rollin With Tonight...
THESE ARE NOT SPORTSPICKS "OFFICIAL PICKS"
ALL MY ODDS COME FROM DRAFTKINGS
Miracle Man Dan's Preakness Stakes
The Preakness is not often a good race to bet. They should really change it - bringing 3YOs back on two weeks rest is an iffy proposition. Is #5 Mystic Dan a super horse capable of going back-to-back, and maybe 3 for 3? I don’t know, but I will bet against it.
If not my namesake, the best horse in this field might be #3 Catching Freedom. He was running late in the Derby, but also has to come back in 2 weeks. I will use him heavy if the track comes up muddy. He’s got Seattle Slew and Danzig in him.
In the 8-hole we got Chad Brown, something of a Preakness specialist, with Tuscan Gold. He belongs. Chad has set him up similar to past winners.
And the 9, Derby-suspended Bobby Baffert really wants to show ‘em all with Imagination. Imagination will be out front, and will try to go wire to wire. He just might.
It's hard to make a good case for any of the long shots. The four favorites are the horse that figure. #5 Dan is 5-2, which is probably the right ...
Miracle Man Dan's Kentucky Derby Recap
Back in the day, I spent a lot of time at the track, and made a lot of money. Attended the Belmont several years in a row. My best day there we had 8 of nine, including Summing in the stakes at 8-1, who defeated Pleasant Colony, a supposed super horse that had won the first 2 legs of the Triple Crown. Over 3 years I had exactly one losing day at Saratoga, when I drunkenly lost my program in line and called the wrong numbers at the window.
I made a lot of money. I blew it all, but have no regrets. It was a great time. How did I do it? Andy Beyer. Andy figured out what should have been obvious - the fastest horse wins the race. He came up with a formula called the Speed Rating, and gave the secret away in his book Picking Winners. It took an hour or two to work the detailed past performances from the Racing Form and calculate the Speed Rating. If you put the time in, the advantage was enormous, so much so that it was considered unfair, until the DRF licensed...
Deep Dive: Alabama-Michigan Playoff, Rose Bowl, January 1, 2024
Season Comparisons
Yard Per Play
Michigan Offense: 6.1, 43rd
Michigan Defense: 4.3, 4th
Alabama Offense: 6.4, 30th
Alabama Defense: 4.9, 18th
A deep dive, with talent-based power ratings, yard-per-play performance based power ratings, and third party independent database game simulation power ratings, and inidivudal game write-up of each title game. A few sites I utilize often:
https://collegefootballdata.com/teams
https://www.pff.com/greenline/ncaa
https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/
https://collegefootballnerds.com