World Cup Quarter Final Norway vs England - My Picks

1% England to win vs Norway in 90 minutes at 50c (good to 55c)
0.5% Over 2.5 goals at 58c (good to 63c)
0.5% Both teams to score at 62c (good to 68c)
0.5% Over 9.5 corners at 46c (good to 56c)

The first of tonight's two quarter finals features a matchup going all the way back to the dark ages, Norway vs England. Norway come into this fixture off the back of a 2-1 win over Brazil, in which Haaland scored two goals before Neymar pulled one back from a penalty, the second penalty Brazil had that game. England meanwhile inflicted one of the very few defeats Mexico have ever suffered at the Estadio Azteca, holding on for a 3-2 win after having played most of the second half with ten men after Jarrell Quansah's red card for a studs up challenge on Mexico's Jesus Gallardo. Both teams have been involved in some explosive, transition heavy games.

I would consider tonight's game to follow in the volatility of these teams' previous games. England under Gareth Southgate were generally very conservative and played passively a lot of the time. One of the big question marks about Thomas Tuchel is whether he would be able to raise England's ceiling while safeguarding their floor. At club level his sides have been very effective in tournaments but not always showing cutting edge against more defensive sides. In this tournament Tuchel has shown that he is very willing to embrace open and volatile games the way he often did at club level. Against Croatia and Mexico England were effectively able to use their athletic skill to strike at both on the counterattack. Against Ghana, Panama and DR Congo, England's ability to break down more disciplined units was tested much more and against Ghana, they didn't score at all.

Norway meanwhile has been the team that has played without pressure in this World Cup, being willing to take each game as it comes and enjoy it while it lasts. They have been willing to attack quickly up the pitch when they win the ball and they have not always needed many chances for Haaland to get on the scoresheet. This is also an unusual match at international level in that many of Norway's players play in the Premier League so quite a few of those playing tonight will know each other from club level. Most of those who don't play in the Premier League play in the Norwegian Eliteserien, particularly Bodø/Glimt, who made it to the last 16 of the Champions League and were in a very strong position to reach the quarter finals before a big loss to Sporting Lisbon in the second leg.

This is a game where I think the volatility component is higher than it would be for other quarter final matchups. Although Norway had a lot of the ball against Brazil, they were patient with it and didn't play it forward at pace. Brazil were still able to win the ball in midfield and launch quick, direct counterattacks that led to chances. This is similar to how England have created chances against Croatia and Mexico, so I would see the way Norway plays even if it's not necessarily at a fast tempo can still lend itself to shot creation. If they do go behind I don't see the game likely to play out as previous knockout games involving England have where they try to contain the other team without looking to expand their lead. As I have said before, Tuchel is comfortable amping up the volatility in a game, especially if his opponent is initiating it.

Although England have struggled against teams that defend deep and challenge England to express a bit of guile to break them down, I don't think Norway is the team with the profile likely to exploit that. The game may even be uneventful for long stretches and then explode into life int he second half. Both teams have aerial threat that they will look to exploit on corners. With both teams also using wide threat up front this can also lend itself to corners and England at least are not afraid to try some shots from outside the box, which can also lead to corners. Overall this is one of the games I think is less likely to turn into a tactical chess match (though both managers are very good at making in game adjustments) and more likely to be a game where both teams are comfortable playing directly. If this turns into a game settled by physicality, transitions and directness, I think that would favour England as well as a game in which there is a good amount of goals, both teams score and there are quite a few corners too.