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All your sports information for those investing Vegas-style in the outcomes of sports games. Predicting games against the line in all sports, especially football, American and English style.

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DannyWalter@MiracleManDan

6 hours ago

MiracleManDan’s AI Baseball 7/11/26

Experimental :

7/11. As a reformed dice player, one of my favorite days.

MLB 2026 — Play Analysis

========================================

Generated: 2026-07-11 17:54 UTC

CSV: outputs/mlbf5/bets-2026-07-11.csv

Model: moneyline_blend (warehouse xG when available)

Scan: 15 fixtures → 1 actionable plays

ACTIONABLE PLAYS (1)

1. Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies

Pick: Detroit Tigers (H) | F5 MONEY | FD +130

Kickoff: 07/11/26 18:11:0 (G15)

Starters: Detroit Tigers Casey Mize (2.89, 0.96) | Philadelphia Phillies Cristopher Sánchez (6.33, 1.52) | SP ERA delta +3.44 (away-home)

Angle: Mid-market dog vs high-brand favorite with non-ace starter

Model: 52.8% win | Fair -112 | Edge +9.3%

Units: 3 | ACTIONABLE

Ratings: home=4.83 away=3.67 | form 0.80/0.40 | mu=+1.20

Notes: H: Casey Mize (2.89, 0.96) A: Cristopher Sánchez (6.33, 1.52) Model: 52.8% Edge: 9.3% Form: +1.20 Angle: Mid-market dog vs high-brand favorite with non-ace starter

MLB Full Game 2026 — Play Analysis

========================================

Generated: 2026-07-11 17:54 UTC

CSV: outputs/mlbfg/bets-2026-07-11.csv

Model: moneyline_blend (warehouse xG when available)

Scan: 15 fixtures → 5 actionable plays

ACTIONABLE PLAYS (5)

1. Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks (A) | GAME MONEY | DK +226

Kickoff: 07/11/26 21:10:0 (G15)

Starters: Los Angeles Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1.78, 0.65) | Arizona Diamondbacks Brandon Pfaadt (4.00, 1.15) | SP ERA delta +2.22 (away-home)

Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

Model: 46.9% win | Fair +113 | Edge +16.2%

Units: 5 | ACTIONABLE

Ratings: home=4.38 away=4.12 | form 0.60/0.50 | mu=+0.30

Notes: H: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (1.78, 0.65) A: Brandon Pfaadt (4.00, 1.15) Model: 46.9% Edge: 16.2% Form: +0.30 Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

2. Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees

Pick: Washington Nationals (H) | GAME MONEY | DK +168

Kickoff: 07/11/26 16:05:0 (G15)

Starters: Washington Nationals PJ Poulin (2.57, 1.00) | New York Yankees Cam Schlittler (2.40, 1.10) | SP ERA delta -0.17 (away-home)

Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

Model: 50.3% win | Fair -101 | Edge +13.0%

Units: 4 | ACTIONABLE

Ratings: home=4.46 away=4.04 | form 0.50/0.40 | mu=+0.46

Notes: H: PJ Poulin (2.57, 1.00) A: Cam Schlittler (2.40, 1.10) Model: 50.3% Edge: 13.0% Form: +0.46 Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

3. Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies

Pick: Detroit Tigers (H) | GAME MONEY | FD +120

Kickoff: 07/11/26 18:11:0 (G15)

Starters: Detroit Tigers Casey Mize (2.89, 0.96) | Philadelphia Phillies Cristopher Sánchez (6.33, 1.52) | SP ERA delta +3.44 (away-home)

Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

Model: 57.6% win | Fair -136 | Edge +12.1%

Units: 4 | ACTIONABLE

Ratings: home=4.83 away=3.67 | form 0.90/0.50 | mu=+1.20

Notes: H: Casey Mize (2.89, 0.96) A: Cristopher Sánchez (6.33, 1.52) Model: 57.6% Edge: 12.1% Form: +1.20 Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

4. New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox

Pick: Boston Red Sox (A) | GAME MONEY | FD +132

Kickoff: 07/11/26 16:11:0 (G15)

Starters: New York Mets Freddy Peralta (6.95, 1.77) | Boston Red Sox Eduardo Rivera (n/a)

Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

Model: 53.5% win | Fair -115 | Edge +10.4%

Units: 3 | ACTIONABLE

Ratings: home=3.90 away=4.60 | form 0.50/0.80 | mu=-0.66

Notes: H: Freddy Peralta (6.95, 1.77) A: Eduardo Rivera (n/a) Model: 53.5% Edge: 10.4% Form: -0.66 Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

5. San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies

Pick: Colorado Rockies (A) | GAME MONEY | MGM +125

Kickoff: 07/11/26 16:06:0 (G15)

Starters: San Francisco Giants Tyler Mahle (5.92, 1.36) | Colorado Rockies Kyle Freeland (6.83, 1.45) | SP ERA delta +0.91 (away-home)

Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

Model: 52.1% win | Fair -109 | Edge +7.7%

Units: 2 | ACTIONABLE

Ratings: home=3.92 away=4.58 | form 0.40/0.60 | mu=-0.62

Notes: H: Tyler Mahle (5.92, 1.36) A: Kyle Freeland (6.83, 1.45) Model: 52.1% Edge: 7.7% Form: -0.62 Angle: High-edge full-game underdog

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