Deep Dive: National Title Game, Michigan-Washington, January 8, 2024
Miracle Man Dan's Kentucky Derby
It is notoriously hard to handicap 3YOs. This is as much as a trainer/jockey race as any. The best horses generally have the best connections. Breeding counts, but less than it used to.
#17 Fierceness is a legitimate favorite, the most talented horse in the field, and maybe not by a little. Can we counterfeit him? The Pletcher/Velasquez connection is as strong as it gets, so we would have to go on the theory that he gets a bad trip on the outside, and has never yet had to chase a horse. This is the Derby after all, and since we are doing this for fun, let’s take a shot.
In terms of connections, #2 is Chad Brown, #4 and #8 are Brad Cox, #6 is our old buddy D. Wayne, #19 is Billy Mott. We use all of them.
I get legit contenders as #2,4,6,7,8,17,19. #2, Sierra Leone, is a legit 2nd choice, a very hard closer. My long bomb is #3, Mystik Dan. He's got a good name, good form,, and a couple of bad trips.
My handicap play is Fierceness going out front and ...
Deep Dive: Alabama-Michigan Playoff, Rose Bowl, January 1, 2024
Season Comparisons
Yard Per Play
Michigan Offense: 6.1, 43rd
Michigan Defense: 4.3, 4th
Alabama Offense: 6.4, 30th
Alabama Defense: 4.9, 18th
A deep dive, with talent-based power ratings, yard-per-play performance based power ratings, and third party independent database game simulation power ratings, and inidivudal game write-up of each title game. A few sites I utilize often:
https://collegefootballdata.com/teams
https://www.pff.com/greenline/ncaa
https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/
https://collegefootballnerds.com