Deep Dive: National Title Game, Michigan-Washington, January 8, 2024
What are the odds Trump grabs Minnesota? I bought at 9% odds on Kalshi. I’m hoping it improves to around the 30-35% mark even if he ultimately doesn’t carry the state.
A brutal week of bad beats in the NFL that produced a week so historic, it had never happened in the prior 1000+ Sundays of the NFL -- a perfect spread record on Sunday and Monday for public backing road favorites. By a YPP basis, it should have been a slightly profitable NFL week, which gives us some sense of the bad luck train that rolled over us, the sharps, and the sportsbooks on Sunday. C'est la vie -- that's the betting life of heavy volume. As past is prologue, now will likely be a good time to hop on, not jump off.
The "GOP Electoral College 300-329" at +275 is pretty much a lock on BetOnline. In case Trump really runs it up and it gets crazy (he takes NM, MN, VA, ME, NH, etc.) you can sprinkle some on "330 or Higher" at +700 to hedge for a guaranteed minimum 195% profit.
So if you bet $500 total: Put $359 on "300-329" at +275 and put $141 on "300 or Higher" at +700 it's a $987 payout either way.
Is my math right? Been a long day 🤪
Deep Dive: Alabama-Michigan Playoff, Rose Bowl, January 1, 2024
Season Comparisons
Yard Per Play
Michigan Offense: 6.1, 43rd
Michigan Defense: 4.3, 4th
Alabama Offense: 6.4, 30th
Alabama Defense: 4.9, 18th
A deep dive, with talent-based power ratings, yard-per-play performance based power ratings, and third party independent database game simulation power ratings, and inidivudal game write-up of each title game. A few sites I utilize often:
https://collegefootballdata.com/teams
https://www.pff.com/greenline/ncaa
https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/
https://collegefootballnerds.com